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Home / Futures Blog / The Rath Overlay (Nov 07 2014)

The Rath Overlay (Nov 07 2014)

November 7, 2014 by Drew Rathgeber

This is a sample entry from Drew Rathgeber’s newsletter, The Rath Overlay, published on Friday, November 07, 2014.


Gold is currently trading at $1,146 (Z4) per troy oz., still sliding downward and the bears keeping control. I’ve been expecting a relief bounce, and might have it today or stagnation. Silver is currently trading at $15.42 (Z4) per troy oz. and will often surprise you, and go to prices you least expect; as I have said the last few weeks both market still look very bearish, and are continuing on their downward spiral, even though typically winter is strong for the metals. The indices are doing some back n’ fill action, with the ES currently trading at 2019.00 (Z4), peaked at 2025 with technical improving to the upside for all of indexes.. The grains remain somewhat bullish, with Corn trading at $3.82bu (Z4), Soybeans currently at $10.30bu (F5), and Wheat at $5.15bu (Z4), the new ‘Angel Cross’ is still holding in the grains sector indicating bullishness. Natural Gas is soaring from a fundamental perspective, blasted through overhead resistance trading at $4.41 (Z4) mmBtu, and Crude Oil still trending lower at $78.55 per barrel.

‘Get to know’, Drew Rathgeber clicking here for his latest interview.

In The News

Physical Gold Shortage Worst In Over a Decade: GOFO Most Negative Since 2001

The last time there was an systemic physical gold shortage was in July 2013. It is then that, for the first time in 5 years, the 1-month Gold forward offered rate, or GOFO, went negative. We said:

Today, something happened that has not happened since the Lehman collapse: the 1 Month Gold Forward Offered (GOFO) rate turned negative, from 0.015% to -0.065%, for the first time in nearly 5 years, or technically since just after the Lehman bankruptcy precipitated AIG bailout in November 2011. And if one looks at the 3 Month GOFO, which also turned shockingly negative overnight from 0.05% to -0.03%, one has to go back all the way to the 1999 Washington Agreement on gold, to find the last time that particular GOFO rate was negative. (more)

IMO: I find this ‘headline grabbing’ articles pretty funny. Remember when Silver dropped below I think $22.00 or $21.00 and the headline was “Silver can’t drop any lower, below the cost of mining & production” hope you didn’t rush to buy Silver then! In this article they are only referring to ‘one’ silver distribution channel, the ‘US Mint’, however you can still buy silver using Futures, or any spot bullion dealer. Furthermore, the US Mint bullion products are strictly controlled and I believe they only sell through a few approved dealers. Even the largest bullion dealers in the U.S. don’t have direct account with the US Mint; this is how crooked and monopolized it is.

ECB ready to do more if needed, will make preparations

(Reuters) – European Central Bank members are all prepared to take more policy action if necessary and the bank’s staff will prepare the groundwork in case, President Mario Draghi said on Thursday. (more)

IMO: This article is U.S. $ positive and I feel like too many have been brainwashed. Does anyone remember back in the 90’ and even early 2000, the Dollar was king and traded well above 1.10 on the index! Look at this chart going back to 1973. Too many people think markets go in one direction, they don’t, they go three directions sideways, up, & down.

ecb

U.S. jobless claims decline; compensation rises in third quarter

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, in the latest sign of tightening labor market conditions. (more)

In The Markets

Emini S&P (ES)

eminisp

Market Comments: Still technical are way off, and honestly probably tough to trade at the current moment.

Gold (GGC)

goldggc

Market Comments: Still look very weak, been thinking maybe a relief bounce, but yet to see one.

U.S. Dollar (DX-M)

usdollar

Market Comments: Still firing ahead! Could the U.S. Dollar become the top currency again?

The Week Ahead

  • 11/13 – Jobless Claims 8:30AM ET
  • 11/13 – JOLTS 10:00AM ET
  • 11/13 – EIA Petroleum Report 11:00AM ET
  • 11/14 – Retail Sales 8:30AM ET
  • 11/14 – Consumer Sentiment 9:55AM ET
  • 11/14 – Business Inventories 10:00AM ET

*IMO – In My Opinion

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Risk Disclosure

STOP ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE STOP PRICE BECAUSE STOP ORDERS, IF THE PRICE IS HIT, BECOME MARKET ORDERS AND, DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS, THE ACTUAL FILL PRICE CAN BE DIFFERENT FROM THE STOP PRICE. IF A MARKET REACHED ITS DAILY PRICE FLUCTUATION LIMIT, A "LIMIT MOVE", IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE A STOP LOSS ORDER.

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

Filed Under: The Rath Overlay

About Drew Rathgeber

Drew began his career at one of the nation’s largest physical spot bullion dealers in 2003. From there he made the transition into commodity futures in 2006. Because he has worked on both sides of the fence, ‘Spot’ and ‘Futures’, he has an astute understanding of how the precious metals markets can work for Retail Traders, Hedgers, and Commercials. He can use this knowledge to help investors and traders alike. Drew also has years of experience in electronic software execution, automated systems, hedging, newsletters, options strategies and outright futures contracts. Through his expertise in these areas, he can guide you and answer all of your questions while teaching you how to manage risk.

Today you can see Drew working in many different capacities in the commodity futures markets. You can even see his weekly IMA Live precious metals commentary every Tuesday and Thursday or sign-up for his weekly newsletter, the “Rath Overlay”, which highlights commodity futures markets and possible future events using his time-tested yet simple trading strategy.

Drew grew up near the popular surf beaches of Southern California. Drew is still an avid surfer and snowboarder. Currently his latest craze is United States Masters Swimming (USMS). He is a nationally ranked swimmer and enjoys competitive open water distance swimming.

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Risk Disclosure

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

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