This is a sample entry from Drew Rathgeber’s newsletter, The Rath Overlay, published on Friday, November 07, 2014.
Gold is currently trading at $1,146 (Z4) per troy oz., still sliding downward and the bears keeping control. I’ve been expecting a relief bounce, and might have it today or stagnation. Silver is currently trading at $15.42 (Z4) per troy oz. and will often surprise you, and go to prices you least expect; as I have said the last few weeks both market still look very bearish, and are continuing on their downward spiral, even though typically winter is strong for the metals. The indices are doing some back n’ fill action, with the ES currently trading at 2019.00 (Z4), peaked at 2025 with technical improving to the upside for all of indexes.. The grains remain somewhat bullish, with Corn trading at $3.82bu (Z4), Soybeans currently at $10.30bu (F5), and Wheat at $5.15bu (Z4), the new ‘Angel Cross’ is still holding in the grains sector indicating bullishness. Natural Gas is soaring from a fundamental perspective, blasted through overhead resistance trading at $4.41 (Z4) mmBtu, and Crude Oil still trending lower at $78.55 per barrel.
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In The News
Physical Gold Shortage Worst In Over a Decade: GOFO Most Negative Since 2001
The last time there was an systemic physical gold shortage was in July 2013. It is then that, for the first time in 5 years, the 1-month Gold forward offered rate, or GOFO, went negative. We said:
Today, something happened that has not happened since the Lehman collapse: the 1 Month Gold Forward Offered (GOFO) rate turned negative, from 0.015% to -0.065%, for the first time in nearly 5 years, or technically since just after the Lehman bankruptcy precipitated AIG bailout in November 2011. And if one looks at the 3 Month GOFO, which also turned shockingly negative overnight from 0.05% to -0.03%, one has to go back all the way to the 1999 Washington Agreement on gold, to find the last time that particular GOFO rate was negative. (more)
IMO: I find this ‘headline grabbing’ articles pretty funny. Remember when Silver dropped below I think $22.00 or $21.00 and the headline was “Silver can’t drop any lower, below the cost of mining & production” hope you didn’t rush to buy Silver then! In this article they are only referring to ‘one’ silver distribution channel, the ‘US Mint’, however you can still buy silver using Futures, or any spot bullion dealer. Furthermore, the US Mint bullion products are strictly controlled and I believe they only sell through a few approved dealers. Even the largest bullion dealers in the U.S. don’t have direct account with the US Mint; this is how crooked and monopolized it is.
ECB ready to do more if needed, will make preparations
(Reuters) – European Central Bank members are all prepared to take more policy action if necessary and the bank’s staff will prepare the groundwork in case, President Mario Draghi said on Thursday. (more)
IMO: This article is U.S. $ positive and I feel like too many have been brainwashed. Does anyone remember back in the 90’ and even early 2000, the Dollar was king and traded well above 1.10 on the index! Look at this chart going back to 1973. Too many people think markets go in one direction, they don’t, they go three directions sideways, up, & down.
U.S. jobless claims decline; compensation rises in third quarter
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, in the latest sign of tightening labor market conditions. (more)
In The Markets
Emini S&P (ES)
Market Comments: Still technical are way off, and honestly probably tough to trade at the current moment.
Market Comments: Still look very weak, been thinking maybe a relief bounce, but yet to see one.
U.S. Dollar (DX-M)
Market Comments: Still firing ahead! Could the U.S. Dollar become the top currency again?
The Week Ahead
- 11/13 – Jobless Claims 8:30AM ET
- 11/13 – JOLTS 10:00AM ET
- 11/13 – EIA Petroleum Report 11:00AM ET
- 11/14 – Retail Sales 8:30AM ET
- 11/14 – Consumer Sentiment 9:55AM ET
- 11/14 – Business Inventories 10:00AM ET
*IMO – In My Opinion
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