This is a sample entry from Drew Rathgeber’s newsletter, The Rath Overlay, published on Friday, October 31, 2014.
Gold is currently trading at $1,174.50 (Z4) per troy oz., below the $1,180 critical support, will today be the big washout day? Did you get my mention of a bear flag last week indicating possible lower prices in the metals sector? Silver is currently trading at $16.05 (Z4) per troy oz. and will often surprise you, and go to prices you least expect; as I have said the last few week both market still look very weak and this hold true today. The indices have blasted off, with the ES currently trading at 1998.00 (Z4), at overhead resistance (daily chart), as I said last week, very wonky looking, and be interesting if we push through overhead or not. Please note this market from a chartist/technical perspective looks terrible. The grains did become bullish, with Corn soaring to $3.85bu (Z4), Soybeans currently at $10.3550bu (F5), and Wheat at $5.33bu (Z4), as I said last week we have new bullish angel crosses 15/40 EMA’s, and they are holding. Natural Gas rebounded a bit, currently at overhead resistance at $3.84 (Z4) mmBtu, and Crude Oil consolidating still only dropping .65 cents from last Friday trading nears its lows at $80.63 (Z4), really testing support and will probably eventually break.
On the economic news front we had good news in Pending Homes Sales Index rising 0.3% numbers released on Oct. 27th. Federal Fund Rate left unchanged Wednesday at 0-.25%, however we had a historic event with TARP finally ending. Jobless claims came in a bit higher this week at 287K new claims, and consensus rage was 275K-290K, be interesting with winter looming if this trend holds? Up next is Consumer Sentiment at 9:55AM ET.
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Metals Market Commentary: Watch here
In The News
U.S. Economy Up 3.5% in 3rd Quarter, Capping Best 6 Months in Over a Decade
The economy in the U.S. expanded more than forecast in the third quarter, capping its strongest six months in more than a decade, as gains in government spending and a shrinking trade deficit made up for a slowdown in household purchases. (more)
Silver, Copper Slammed As Commodities Crumble Into US Open
Catalyst, who needs catalyst…continued dollar strength post-FOMC is weighing on the whole commodity complex but copper and silver seem to suffering most. (more)
IMO: To say I’m “Surprised” I’d be lying, watching the largest Commercial short unwind in modern times. People seem to forget what happened in the 1980’s, then the relatively flat Silver market for the next 20 years.
Greenspan: Financial Market ‘Turmoil’ Inevitable as Fed Withdraws Stimulus
There will be no free lunch for financial markets as the Federal Reserve moves away from its monetary stimulus, says former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. The Fed announced the end of quantitative easing after its policy meeting Wednesday, and economists believe the central bank will begin raising interest rates sometime after the middle of next year.
IMO: See it’s tough to decipher real news from other news. Simply using the name ‘Greenspan’ as click-bait, makes it difficult to value how much weight to be placed on this particular article. Remember ‘Greenspan’ also created many bubbles in our economy during his tenure, even he can be dead wrong.
Markets Explode Higher as Bank of Japan Goes All-0In-er; Increases QE To JPY 80 80 Trillion
In a surprise move given all the recent congratulatory bullshit from Abe and Kuroda on breaking the back of Japan’s deflation and bring about recovery (forgetting to mention record high misery index, surging bankruptcies and a crushed consumer), the Bank of Japan (by a 5-4 vote) raised its bond-buying program from JPY 70 trillion to 80 trillion… and triple its ETF buying to JPY 3 trillion. This move, on the heels of more confirmation of broader foreign asset purchases in Japan’s GPIF sent USDJPY instantly gapping 1 big figure higher to 110.30 and Nikkei futures instantly rose 400 points. S&P futures are also surging. Gold and silver are tanking and TSY bonds are selling off.
IMO: This is why NO-ONE can predict futures events. You thought the end of TARP, this week would logically indicate a drop in the ES, RLM, NQ, YM. Why I’m very, very, careful trading any news due to its unpredictability of how the market will actual digest, or what had previously digested. The spin.
In The Markets
Emini S&P (ES)
Market Comments: WoW! Did you see this coming? I didn’t expect a rebound this quickly. Trading right at overhead resistance and making new highs today at 2016.75. Impressive.
Market Comments: If you have been following my newsletter closely, you would have noticed I was hinting at lower prices. Today, we are testing support at $1,180, and I feel we will eventually break this support zone, in particular having such a strong momentum U.S. Dollar.
U.S. Dollar (DX-M)
Market Comments: Did some back n’ fill action, and again testing overhead resistance, and expect it to probably breakthrough pending any unforeseen news changes.
The Week Ahead
- 11/2 – PMI Manufacturing Index 9:45AM ET
- 11/4 – International Trade 8:30AM ET
- 11/5 – ADP Employment Report 8:15AM ET
- 11/6 – Jobless Claims 8:30AM ET
- 11/6 – Productivity Costs 8:30AM ET
- 11/7 – Employment Situation 8:30 AM ET
*IMO – In My Opinion
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