Tomorrow afternoon I’m giving a webinar on swing trading covering the methods and patterns I use for Swing Trader’s Insight. You can register for the webinar here: https://www.danielstrading.com/webinar/insights-of-a-swing-trader/.
Equities are trading heavy again today as angst about global economic growth is weighing on the markets. Germany saw weak industrial production in August- old data, but it led to a dire headline in the FT. The IMF lowered its estimate for global growth for 2015, pointing to the EZ, Russia and Brazil. However, the IMF also increased (slightly) its estimate for US growth for next year. There’s no significant economic data due today. Grains will try to decide whether to undo some of Monday’s Mystery Rally. There was talk of a spring drought in Northern Brazil and some wet weather in the Midwest; I think the most likely explanation is short covering ahead of a WASDE report on Friday.
Dec. eMini S&P Futures: There are two potential setups for today. First, a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day, 1950.50 is the reference price for it. The second setup is a potential breakout (NR4, doji yesterday). For the downside breakout we can watch the overnight low of 1944.75; there’s Fibonacci retracement there as well. Trade or Fade (my breakout trade advisory) has today’s breakout levels at 1967.00 on the upside and 1939.50 down.
Dec. eMini NASDAQ Futures: Same setup alternatives as the Spoos. The Buy day reference price is 3996.25. The night session low of 3983.25 is the level to watch for a downside breakout; there’s Fib retracement support around there as well.
Dec. eMini Russell Futures: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day so a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day is anticipated; 1087.20 is the Buy day reference price. Look to buy only when we see upside momentum; don’t try to catch a falling knife.
Dec. T Bonds: Breakout setup (NR4, doji). Reference prices for a downside breakout would be 139-10 and then 139-01; on the upside watch 139-25 and then 140-01. The T Notes (both 5 and 10 year) are on TTT Sell Short day signals.
Dec. Yen: It’s a TTT Sell day and Monday was an inside day. I would look to be long above 9208 (Monday high) for upside follow through with 9251 and 9263 as rally objectives. We should likely anticipate a Sell Short day for tomorrow although the daily trend is turning up.
Dec. Canadian Dollar: “Officially” it’s a Taylor Trading Technique Sell day however the size of yesterday’s rally makes me looking for a short- the higher timeframe trend is still down and ROC is on a sell signal. Look to short a break below the session low of 8923.
Dec. Gold: The $1204 area has been a pivot point- this morning I would look to short gold on another move below that area.
Dec. Cocoa: Breakout setup (ID, NR7); watch last Friday’s low of 3050 as the reference price for a downside breakout.
Nov. Crude Oil: Another Taylor Trading Technique Sell day / breakout setup combo- short a break below the session low of 89.67?
Dec. Live Cattle: Breakout setup. On the downside watch 165.50; on the upside there’s 167.02 and then 167.67.
Nov. Soybeans: It’s a Taylor Trading Technique Sell Day. 943-0 is the Sell day objective; I would also consider a short on a failed rally above that level (TTT Sell Short day pattern).
Dec. Wheat: It’s an “exit breakout buys” day so a TTT Sell Short day is anticipated. The overnight low of 489-2 lines up with last week’s swing high of 489-6; I would look to short it on a break below that area. Longer term it looks like the trend may be turning up.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
In this guide, experienced trader and broker Scott Hoffman explains the trading methods he uses to analyze and trade the futures markets and to publish his trade advisory, Swing Trader’s Insight.
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