Yesterday the eMini S&P futures made a big down move out of a breakout setup. By the Taylor trading Technique, we would anticipate a Buy day for the following session. The rally started relatively late in the session and followed an early plunge, but we did see the rally that the TTT told us to expect.
EMini S&P futures had a breakout setup for Wednesday; Tuesday was an NR7 and a doji day. This resulted in the big downside move on Wednesday. Pushing below the 100 day SMA at 1945.70 (the dotted blue line) added some panic to the session.
For the session following a breakout move day, the Taylor Trading Technique tells us to anticipate a TTT day in the opposite direction. We look for a downside breakout day to be followed by a TTT Buy day and an upside breakout to be followed by a TTT Sell Short day. This is because a breakout move often pushes a market to a level that’s “too low” or “too high”, which prompts Taylor’s “smart money” traders to take advantage of the overshoot. (It’s like a buying or a selling tail, in Market Profile terms.)
So yesterday’s downside breakout and today’s TTT Buy day signal told us to look for early session follow through selling. We look for this early selloff to run its course and then we go long when the market starts moving back up.
The previous session low is the standard reference price for a TTT Buy day. An initial move below the previous day low is a heads up to look for an upside reversal. We then look to go long when we have evidence that the market is moving higher, and stay long as long as the market moves higher. We should be patient and enter only when momentum favors our play, and then be patient to stay with the trade as long as momentum is in our favor.
After making a day session high of 1942.50, the market made a series of lower highs and lower lows until making the 1918.25 session low around 10:40 AM. As long as it kept making lower highs and lows we wouldn’t buy, as momentum was still down. The market started to rally after making that low however we still needed a signal that the momentum was to the upside.
There were two levels to use for confirmation of upside momentum. Aggressive traders could use the 11:30 AM high of 1928.50; a rally above this level would mark the first time the market took out a previous intraday high. This aggressive long entry came around 11:50. The 1923.75 swing low was a good level for the initial stop loss, as breaking below there would end the new stretch of higher lows.
The standard TTT Buy day entry would be a move above the previous day low of 1933.75; this was triggered shortly after Noon CT. The rally has continued from there, with 1945.75 as the next rally objective (it also marks the 100 day SMA, adding to its significance.)
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