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Home / Futures Blog / Swing Trader’s Insight Futures Watch List for October 1

Swing Trader’s Insight Futures Watch List for October 1

October 1, 2014 by Scott Hoffman

China and Hong Kong are closed for National Day holidays; Hong Kong protests grew in size but remain peaceful. Global PMI reports were underwhelming; a weak German PMI may lower Germany’s resistance to ECB accommodation- we may find out about that at tomorrow’s ECB meeting. In the US, the ADP employment report showed a private sector payroll gain of 213K in September, a bit better than analysts’ estimates of a 200K rise. At 9 AM CT is the September ISM manufacturing index; the median estimate is for a decline of 1.0 to 58.0.  At 9:30 AM is the weekly EIA petroleum inventory report; estimates are for a rise of 400K in crude oil inventories last week.

Dec. eMini S&P Futures:  It has a breakout setup (NR7, doji).  I’ll look for a potential breakout move after the 8:30 open. For breakout reference prices we can watch 1967.00 (overnight high) on the upside; 1957.75 (overnight low) and 1955.50 (Monday low) on the downside.

Dec. eMini Russell Futures:  It’s a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day (cover breakout sales day). 1094.10 is the Buy day reference price. Cautious traders might wait to buy when it moves above the 25 September low of 1100.20- that will be resistance for a rally.

Dec. T Bonds:  It’s another Taylor Trading Technique Buy day and it had a breakout setup (ID, NR4). Monday’s high of 138-19 was the reference price for an upside breakout, and I had a measured move objective of 138-30. Bonds look strong, the shorter end of the curve (5 and 10 year T Notes) look even stronger.

Dec. Yen:  Taylor Trading Technique Buy day. 9107 is the Buy day reference price, with rally targets of 9147 and then 9157.

Dec. British Pound:  It’s a “cover breakout sales” day so a TTT Buy day was anticipated, and there was a good low penetration buy last night. There’s Fibonacci retracement resistance at the session high of 1.6214.  Clearing that level could extend a rally although I wouldn’t stay with long positions as the longer term trend is down.

Dec. Gold:  Another “cover b.o. sales” / TTT Buy day. The 1210 area should be support, and 1218 to 1220 is resistance.

March Sugar:  By the Taylor Trading Technique it’s a Buy day but we need to see upside momentum before going long. Bulls need to avoid a close below the 16.23 Fibonacci retracement level.

Nov. Crude Oil:  Taylor Trading Technique Buy day. I’ll be waiting to see if there’s a breakout move to trade after the 9:30 AM inventory report.

Nov. Natural Gas:  Trade or Fade (my breakout trade advisory) has today as a breakout setup (range contraction, doji) with 4.186 as the reference price for an upside breakout. Yesterday looks like a correction in a strong bull market.

Dec. Live Cattle:  Taylor Trading Technique Buy day, 163.17 is the Buy day reference price. More conservative traders might look to buy on a rally above the 10 September high of 163.87.

Dec. Lean Hogs:  Treat today as a breakout setup with yesterday’s high and low as reference prices.

Nov. Soybeans:  Sell Short day- be careful about shorting it if it regains 909-6. Monday’s low of 905-4 is the reference price for more downside.

Swing Trader's Insight Essential Reference Guide Cover

Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading

In this guide, experienced trader and broker Scott Hoffman explains the trading methods he uses to analyze and trade the futures markets and to publish his trade advisory, Swing Trader’s Insight.

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Risk Disclosure

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

Filed Under: Swing Trader's Insight

About Scott Hoffman

Scott graduated from the University of Chicago in 1986 with a degree in Economics. After graduation, Scott worked on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange then moved upstairs, serving as the personal broker to a former chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade. There, he worked as a broker and margin manager, starting up the firm’s full service brokerage division.

Today, Scott serves as an educator and mentor for new traders, and as a trading partner and ally for experienced traders. The breadth and depth of Scott’s knowledge make him the “go to guy” for both retail and institutional traders.

Scott also publishes two futures advisories, Swing Trader’s Insight and Trade or Fade. He also writes the futures trading blog at www.futuresinsightblog.com. Scott has written articles for a number of futures publications and has done numerous futures trading seminars, including seminars for both the CBOT and CME.

Scott offers his customers the knowledge he has gained from his more than 25 years of experience in the futures business. Scott is accepting new clients at this time.

Scott lives in suburban Chicago with his wife and three children. In his free time he enjoys coaching his children’s sports and various other athletic activities.

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Risk Disclosure

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

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