China and Hong Kong are closed for National Day holidays; Hong Kong protests grew in size but remain peaceful. Global PMI reports were underwhelming; a weak German PMI may lower Germany’s resistance to ECB accommodation- we may find out about that at tomorrow’s ECB meeting. In the US, the ADP employment report showed a private sector payroll gain of 213K in September, a bit better than analysts’ estimates of a 200K rise. At 9 AM CT is the September ISM manufacturing index; the median estimate is for a decline of 1.0 to 58.0. At 9:30 AM is the weekly EIA petroleum inventory report; estimates are for a rise of 400K in crude oil inventories last week.
Dec. eMini S&P Futures: It has a breakout setup (NR7, doji). I’ll look for a potential breakout move after the 8:30 open. For breakout reference prices we can watch 1967.00 (overnight high) on the upside; 1957.75 (overnight low) and 1955.50 (Monday low) on the downside.
Dec. eMini Russell Futures: It’s a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day (cover breakout sales day). 1094.10 is the Buy day reference price. Cautious traders might wait to buy when it moves above the 25 September low of 1100.20- that will be resistance for a rally.
Dec. T Bonds: It’s another Taylor Trading Technique Buy day and it had a breakout setup (ID, NR4). Monday’s high of 138-19 was the reference price for an upside breakout, and I had a measured move objective of 138-30. Bonds look strong, the shorter end of the curve (5 and 10 year T Notes) look even stronger.
Dec. Yen: Taylor Trading Technique Buy day. 9107 is the Buy day reference price, with rally targets of 9147 and then 9157.
Dec. British Pound: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day so a TTT Buy day was anticipated, and there was a good low penetration buy last night. There’s Fibonacci retracement resistance at the session high of 1.6214. Clearing that level could extend a rally although I wouldn’t stay with long positions as the longer term trend is down.
Dec. Gold: Another “cover b.o. sales” / TTT Buy day. The 1210 area should be support, and 1218 to 1220 is resistance.
March Sugar: By the Taylor Trading Technique it’s a Buy day but we need to see upside momentum before going long. Bulls need to avoid a close below the 16.23 Fibonacci retracement level.
Nov. Crude Oil: Taylor Trading Technique Buy day. I’ll be waiting to see if there’s a breakout move to trade after the 9:30 AM inventory report.
Nov. Natural Gas: Trade or Fade (my breakout trade advisory) has today as a breakout setup (range contraction, doji) with 4.186 as the reference price for an upside breakout. Yesterday looks like a correction in a strong bull market.
Dec. Live Cattle: Taylor Trading Technique Buy day, 163.17 is the Buy day reference price. More conservative traders might look to buy on a rally above the 10 September high of 163.87.
Dec. Lean Hogs: Treat today as a breakout setup with yesterday’s high and low as reference prices.
Nov. Soybeans: Sell Short day- be careful about shorting it if it regains 909-6. Monday’s low of 905-4 is the reference price for more downside.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
In this guide, experienced trader and broker Scott Hoffman explains the trading methods he uses to analyze and trade the futures markets and to publish his trade advisory, Swing Trader’s Insight.
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