We’re past the FOMC meeting; they kept the statement language unchanged although they raised their estimate for interest rates. The fact that the Fed didn’t turn more hawkish boosted equities however the fact that the Fed is talking about eventually raising rates is supporting the USD. European markets are waiting for the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum; it’s difficult to know exactly when we’ll see markets moves as a result of it. We did get some US economic news today; August housing starts were soft after a strong July while weekly jobless claims showed a much larger than expected drop. At 9 AM CT is the Philly Fed survey for September; it is forecast to be down 5.0 to 23.0. At 9:30 AM is the weekly EIA natural gas storage reports; traders expect an injection of 90 bcf last week.
Dec. eMini S&P Futures: Watch the 2003 area as a pivot point today. Yesterday was a doji bar however the range was wider than you would normally see for a breakout setup.
Dec. eMini Dow Futures: Breakout setup (NR4, doji); will another move above yesterday’s high (17134) see a breakout rally?
Dec. eMini Russell: Is it a Taylor Trading Technique Sell Short day or a day for a breakout move (NR4 yesterday)? There was a SS Day high violation sale this morning; watch the 1152.50 area as a downside pivot point for now.
Dec. 10 Year T Note: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day so we would anticipate a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day for today. However, we need to see upside momentum before going long; so far today we’ve seen a failure to regain last week’s swing low of 123-29.5. Yesterday’s low of 123-26 is the Buy day reference price.
Currency Futures: I would be careful about trading the European currencies as we await results of the Scottish independence referendum; it could cause volatility. Fed policy supports the USD, however, a “No” vote for Scottish independence would help European currencies. The question is whether that boost would be a temporary boost or something more substantial.
Dec. Euro: Good rally out of a TTT Buy day. Regaining the 9 Sept. low of 1.2871 helped the rally; a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2925 is the next rally target.
Dec. British Pound: It rallied out of a breakout setup; watch the 20 day EMA at 1.6371 as a pivot point for the rally. If it continues to rally today we would anticipate a TTT Sell Short day for Friday.
Dec. Australian Dollar: TTT Buy day. Yesterday’s low of 8893 is the Buy day reference price; clearing Monday’s swing low of 8927 could boost a rally.
Dec. Gold: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day. Yesterday’s low of 1222.00 is the TTT Buy day reference price; Monday’s low of 1226.30 is the first rally objective / resistance.
Dec. Coffee: A rally and then a selloff out of a breakout setup. It’s bearish under 183.10; trend line support at 181.15 is the next downside reference price.
Dec. Cotton: Selloff out of a breakout setup; look to be short below Tuesday’s low of 65.26. 65.25 is a significant Fib retracement support level.
Nov. Crude Oil: It rallied out of a breakout setup; is there more to go? I’m not so sure at the moment. There was an overnight double top at 93.60 that the bulls would need to clear. Trade or Fade (my breakout trade advisory) has the upside breakout price at 93.79 with a first rally target of 94.75.
Nov. Natural Gas: Breakout setup, watch yesterday’s high of 4.100 and low of 4.025 as breakout reference prices. Be alert for volatility after the 9:30 AM EIA report.
Nov. Soybeans: Breakout setup (ID, NR4); I’d like to short a downside breakout.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
In this guide, experienced trader and broker Scott Hoffman explains the trading methods he uses to analyze and trade the futures markets and to publish his trade advisory, Swing Trader’s Insight.
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