Yesterday’s surprise announcement may have taken some of the excitement from today’s FOMC meeting announcement. In the back of my mind I was in the Jon Hilsenrath camp- I think the Fed won’t say anything to signal earlier than expected stimulus withdrawal / rate hikes. Now, even if the Fed leaves thing unchanged, the likely reaction (higher equities, commodities, lower USD) may be blunted yesterday’s liquidity move by China. In economic data, the August CPI came in lower than expected, giving the Fed more ammo to remain dovish. At 9:30 AM CT is the weekly EIA petroleum inventory report; crude stocks are forecast to have fallen by 1.8 million barrels last week. We get the FOMC meeting communique at 1 PM and Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference begins at 1:30 PM.
Dec. eMini S&P Futures: It’s an “exit breakout buys” day so a Taylor Trading Technique Sell Short day is anticipated; 1994.50 is the reference price for it. Look for a potential breakout move after the FOMC meeting communique and again during / after Yellen’s press conference. I would likely favor the short side post-FOMC although logic says to keep an open mind, and the market may be volatile.
Dec. eMini NASDAQ: It’s a TTT Sell day (see my post about yesterday’s TTT buy HERE). The Sell day, combined with yesterday’s WR7 pattern, suggests a two-sided consolidation day today. It will be interesting to see how this interacts with the SS day signal for the S&Ps.
Dec. eMini Russell Futures: It’s the weakest of the stock indices- best candidate for a short? Watch 1141 as a pivot point for a short this morning, and the 1140 area is an important Fibonacci retracement support level.
Dec. T Bonds: Treat today as a breakout setup as it remains contained within last Friday’s range. For breakout levels I would watch yesterday’s high of 136-24 on the upside and last Friday’s low of 135-25 down. The selloff has been testing the 100 day MA at 136-00. The 5 and 10 year T Notes are on TTT Sell Short day signals.
Dec. Yen: Watch last Friday’s low of 9318- the daily trend is down and it has made a small flag over the past three days.
Dec. Euro: It’s an “exit breakout buys” / TTT Sell Short day setup of sorts, although yesterday it fell back far enough to muddy that signal. 1.3006 is the SS Day reference price and there’s Fib resistance at 1.3021. On the downside watch trend line support at 1.2934.
Dec. British Pound: Another “exit breakout buys day”. 1.6299 is the SS day reference price and there’s Fib resistance at 1.6334. For the Pound, the independence referendum in Scotland (scheduled for Thursday) will be a bigger factor than the FOMC meeting.
Dec. Canadian Dollar: TTT Sell Short day; there was a high violation sell signal overnight. 9053 is the first downside target.
Dec. Australian Dollar: It’s another “exit b.o. buys” / TTT Sell Short day; watch 8991 as a pivot point for extending the selloff.
Dec. Gold: It’s on a TTT Sell Short day signal although the relatively low range close makes it a tougher call. There’s resistance in the 1243 area.
Oct. Sugar: Watch the Monday / Tuesday low of 13.52 as a reference price- either for a downside breakout or a TTT Buy day.
Nov. Crude Oil: Crude has two potential stimuli for a move- the EIA report at 9:30 AM CT and then the FOMC meeting. I would look for a potential breakout move after the EIA; otherwise it’s on a TTT Sell Short day signal.
Nov. Soybeans: TTT Buy day, conservative traders should wait for a rally to sell into (the daily trend is down). There’s trend line support at 979-0; the 1000 area is major resistance.
Dec. Bean Oil: I like the long side; look for support in the 33.00 area.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
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