US retail sales data for August came in a bit stronger than expected, painting a good picture of the consumer sector ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. At 8:55 AM CT we get The Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for September; it is forecast to be up 0.9 to 83.4. There is growing talk that the Fed will consider moving forward the timing of the beginning of tightening- this has really pressured Treasuries this week.
Dec. eMini S&P Futures: It’s a Taylor Trading Technique Sell Short day. Yesterday’s high of 1999.50 is the SS day reference price; downside targets are 1985.75 and then 1982.50.
Dec. eMini Russell Futures: Another TTT Sell Short day. There was a high violation sale overnight; I would consider shorting on a break below the Fibonacci retracement level at 1165.10.
Dec. T Bonds: Good selloff out of a breakout setup; ROC was on a strong sell signal. Trade or Fade (my breakout trade advisory) has downside targets of 136-06 and 135-20.
Dec. Euro: Breakout setup; first reference prices are 1.2973 on the upside and 1.2907 down.
Dec. British Pound: Breakout setup (NR4, doji). Downside breakout levels are 1.6192 and then 1.6174.
Dec. Gold: TTT Buy day, yesterday’s low of 1235.30 is the reference price. Treat longs as a scalp only, although regaining the June low of 1241.70 would help the bulls a bit.
Dec. Silver: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day so a TTT Buy day is anticipated. Resistance is at the June low of 1870.
Dec. Cocoa: Another “cover b.o. sales”/ TTT Buy day. There’s Fib resistance around the session high of 3058. I’d like to see a rally in order to get short; the 3090 area is resistance.
Dec. Coffee: Breakout setup; the overnight low of 183.00 is the first reference price for a downside breakout.
Dec. Cotton: Sell Short day; the 27 August high of 67.72 should be a pivot point for a selloff. A break represents a buying opportunity.
Nov. Soybeans: Another “cover b.o. sales” day; Wednesday’s low of 990-0 should be resistance for a rally.
Dec. Wheat: TTT Buy day. I’d be careful with this one; the daily trend is down and it closed well above the reference price (503-0). Don’t buy until we see upside momentum.
Dec. Bean Oil: There was an overnight rally out of a breakout setup. Holding above the 32.00 area could encourage a rally, with Monday’s high of 32.80 as the primary upside target.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
In this guide, experienced trader and broker Scott Hoffman explains the trading methods he uses to analyze and trade the futures markets and to publish his trade advisory, Swing Trader’s Insight.
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