News flow was light overnight. The EU announced new sanctions against Russia but it delayed implementation for a few days to see if the Ukrainian ceasefire holds. There was no significant data from Asia or Europe overnight and not much from the US. At 9 AM CT is the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for July, it is expected to show job openings were 4.7 million, which would be a 13 year high. Grain markets were lower as frost fears fade and traders face a huge crop to be harvested. There’s a USDA supply / demand report on Thursday.
Sept. eMini S&P Futures: Monday was an ID, NR4 day- will we see a breakout move today? I’d watch 2005.25 (trend line) as the first reference price for an upside breakout and Monday’s low of 1994.00 on the downside.
Sept. eMini Russell Futures: On the one hand it could be a breakout move day as Monday was an NR4. On the other hand it looks like a Taylor Trading Technique Sell Short day, and there was a high violation sale overnight. For either setup I would now use the overnight range- either for an upside breakout if it moves above the overnight high of 1174.40 or a downside breakout / Sell Short day if it moves below the overnight low of 1169.40.
Dec. T Bonds: It sold off out of a breakout setup. Monday’s low of 137-23 was significant Fibonacci retracement support so it was a natural breakout reference price. The next downside target is 137-07 (50 day SMA). The 5 and 10 year T Notes also sold off out of breakout setups.
Dec. Euro: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day so a TTT Buy day is anticipated. Last Thursday’s low of 1.2932 will be resistance for a rally.
Dec. Canadian Dollar: Another “cover b.o. sales” day; watch the 26 August low of 9070 as a reference price for a TTT Buy day move.
Dec. Gold: I’d look for one more down day and then a TTT Buy day.
Oct. Sugar: Monday was an NR7, look for a breakout trade today. The daily trend is down; treat a rally (if it comes) as a scalp only.
Dec. Cotton: Monday was an inside day; look for a breakout trade with 65.18 (Monday high) and 64.43 (overnight low) as breakout reference prices.
Oct. Crude Oil: TTT Sell day. I would expect it will have trouble remaining above 93.62 (Monday’s high) and would anticipate a TTT Sell Short day for Wednesday.
Oct. Live Cattle: TTT Buy day. Watch 159.25 as a pivot point for a rally; targets would be 160.25 (Monday high) and 160.75 (contract high).
Oct. Lean Hogs: Another TTT Buy day; watch 104.25 and 104.47 as upside pivot points.
Nov. Soybeans: Will today be the day it breaks the recent low 1001-2 and the 1000 area?
Dec. Wheat: I would consider a short if it breaks below the overnight low of 527-0; 524-2 (Monday’s low) is the next reference price on the downside.
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