News of a cease fire between Russia and Ukraine was the big market stimulus last night. It’s still a fluid situation so I’d be cautious about trading off that. The Euro got a limited boost off the Ukrainian news after weak EZ data (retail sales, services PMI) raised more speculation that the ECB may add to stimulus when it meets tomorrow. The only significant US release is the Fed Beige Book, which comes out at 1 PM CT. Corn and soybeans sold off after the weekly USDA crop progress report showed conditions improved last week when they would normally be declining.
Sept. eMini S&P Futures: Will it make a directional move after two doji days? Watch yesterday’s high of 2006.25 as a pivot point for the upside; the last intraday high of 2008.75 is first resistance.
Sept. eMini Russell: By the Taylor Trading Technique we should be looking for a Sell Short day. Watch Tuesday’s high of 1181.20 as the reference price and last week’s swing high of 1177.50 as the first target / support.
Dec. T Bonds: TTT Buy day for a scalp only. Watch previous session highs of 138-12 and 138-22 as upside reference prices.
Sept. Euro: Rally out of a breakout setup (NR4, doji). Tuesday’s high of 1.3147 was the reference price for an upside breakout; the first rally objective is trend line and Fibonacci retracement in the 1.3165 area.
Sept. Swiss Franc: Another breakout setup. Watch the 27 August swing low of 1.0889 as a pivot point; Tuesday’s high of 1.0898 is the primary reference price for an upside breakout.
Sept. Canadian Dollar: TTT Buy day. 9141 is the Buy day reference price; holding above 9168 (old Fib level, 20 day EMA) would help a rally.
Dec. Gold: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day so a TTT Buy day was anticipated. The daily trend is down so we should treat longs as a scalp only. The 21 August low of 1273.40 would be resistance on a rally.
Dec. Cocoa: TTT Buy day; I would watch for a rally for an opportunity to get short. The 22 August low of 3184 will be resistance.
Oct. Sugar: Sell Short day; watch the 15.64 Fib level as a pivot point. I’d be interested in buying a break.
Oct. Crude Oil: TTT buy day; the Fib level at 94.34 is the next rally objective.
Nov. Soybeans: TTT Sell day. With the daily trend down, would it have the momentum to break out under the recent low (1019-6)?
Dec. Wheat: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day; watch the area from 550-0 to 550-6 as the reference price for a TTT Buy day.
Dec. Corn: Downside breakout under last week’s swing low of 361-6; the contract low of 358-0 is the next reference price for a selloff.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
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