Yesterday the European ISM manufacturing index for August came in weaker than expected; this raised the odds of more QE from the ECB, which in turn led to strength in the USD. The ECB meets on Thursday; analysts give 50/50 odds of a 10 b.p. rate cut then. Dollar strength pressured some commodities, notably metals and crude oil. Things are still tense in Ukraine as the EU considers more sanctions against Russia. At 9 AM CT is the August ISM manufacturing index, which is forecast to be down 0.3 to 56.8.
Sept. eMini S&P Futures: By the Taylor Trading Technique it’s a Sell Short day. Friday’s high of 2003.75 is the reference price; I would also watch last week’s swing high of 2002.75 as a pivot point for a selloff.
Sept. eMini Russell Futures: Another TTT Sell Short day. Last week’s high of 1177.50 is the primary reference price. Friday’s high of 1174.10 would be next with a first downside target of 1170.60.
Dec. T Bonds: Big selloff out of a breakout setup (ID, NR7, doji). Last week’s low of 138-29 is the next downside target.
Sept. Euro: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day so a TTT Buy day is anticipated. Friday’s low of 1.3134 is the Buy day reference price; last Wednesday’s swing low of 1.3153 is the first objective / resistance for a rally. The daily trend is down; treat longs as a scalp only.
Dec. Gold: Big selloff out of a breakout setup; breaking the August low of 1273.40 extended the break. Don’t get too excited about the long side; the daily trend is down.
Dec. Copper: Breakout setup; I would consider shorting a break below the session low of 3.1400. Trade or Fade (my breakout trade advisory) had 3.1402 as the downside breakout level with targets of 3.1200 and 3.0925.
Dec. Cotton: Sold off out of a breakout setup; there’s trend line support at the session low (65.27).
Oct. Crude Oil: Good selloff on a TTT Sell Short day; the Fib level at 94.68 is the next downside reference price for a selloff.
Oct. Natural Gas: Sold off out of a breakout setup; the Fib level at 3.933 is the next downside target.
Nov. Soybeans: TTT Buy day rally out of a gap lower open last night. The low 1030 area has been good resistance.
Dec. Wheat: TTT Buy day, although Friday’s inside day calls for caution. Friday’s low of 561-2 is the Buy day reference price; I might also look to buy on a rally above the overnight high of 565-0.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
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