Yesterday the European ISM manufacturing index for August came in weaker than expected; this raised the odds of more QE from the ECB, which in turn led to strength in the USD. The ECB meets on Thursday; analysts give 50/50 odds of a 10 b.p. rate cut then. Dollar strength pressured some commodities, notably metals and crude oil. Things are still tense in Ukraine as the EU considers more sanctions against Russia. At 9 AM CT is the August ISM manufacturing index, which is forecast to be down 0.3 to 56.8.
Sept. eMini S&P Futures: By the Taylor Trading Technique it’s a Sell Short day. Friday’s high of 2003.75 is the reference price; I would also watch last week’s swing high of 2002.75 as a pivot point for a selloff.
Sept. eMini Russell Futures: Another TTT Sell Short day. Last week’s high of 1177.50 is the primary reference price. Friday’s high of 1174.10 would be next with a first downside target of 1170.60.
Dec. T Bonds: Big selloff out of a breakout setup (ID, NR7, doji). Last week’s low of 138-29 is the next downside target.
Sept. Euro: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day so a TTT Buy day is anticipated. Friday’s low of 1.3134 is the Buy day reference price; last Wednesday’s swing low of 1.3153 is the first objective / resistance for a rally. The daily trend is down; treat longs as a scalp only.
Dec. Gold: Big selloff out of a breakout setup; breaking the August low of 1273.40 extended the break. Don’t get too excited about the long side; the daily trend is down.
Dec. Copper: Breakout setup; I would consider shorting a break below the session low of 3.1400. Trade or Fade (my breakout trade advisory) had 3.1402 as the downside breakout level with targets of 3.1200 and 3.0925.
Dec. Cotton: Sold off out of a breakout setup; there’s trend line support at the session low (65.27).
Oct. Crude Oil: Good selloff on a TTT Sell Short day; the Fib level at 94.68 is the next downside reference price for a selloff.
Oct. Natural Gas: Sold off out of a breakout setup; the Fib level at 3.933 is the next downside target.
Nov. Soybeans: TTT Buy day rally out of a gap lower open last night. The low 1030 area has been good resistance.
Dec. Wheat: TTT Buy day, although Friday’s inside day calls for caution. Friday’s low of 561-2 is the Buy day reference price; I might also look to buy on a rally above the overnight high of 565-0.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
In this guide, experienced trader and broker Scott Hoffman explains the trading methods he uses to analyze and trade the futures markets and to publish his trade advisory, Swing Trader’s Insight.
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