Last night had a strange start as the CME open was delayed because of technical problems with Globex. When they opened stocks and the USD rallied on M&A news and Friday’s Jackson Hole speeches from ECB President Draghi and BOJ Governor Kuroda, both of whom gave dovish speeches about their monetary policy. The Euro got an additional push lower after the German IFO survey showed German business climate sentiment fell to a 13 month low for August. Tensions continue to run high in Ukraine as Russia continues to act provocatively. For US data we get July new home sales at 9 A CT; they are forecast to be up 5.4% to 428,000. Grains were lower as a large harvest looms closer and the US Dollar strengthens.
Sept. eMini SP Futures: Rally out of a breakout setup (ID, NR7). Thursday’s high of 1992.00 was the first reference price for an upside breakout; watch it as a pivot point now.
Sept. eMini Russell Futures: Another breakout setup (doji, range contraction); watch last Tuesday’s high of 1163.10 as a pivot point this morning.
Sept. T Bonds: It’s a Taylor Trading Technique Sell Short day; Friday’s high of 140-18 is the reference price.
Sept. Yen: TTT Buy day rally after a successful test of the yearly low of 9595. Fibonacci retracement resistance at the overnight high of 9629 will be a reference price for an extension of the rally. The daily trend is still down- watch the rally for an opportunity to short it.
Sept. Euro: It gapped lower overnight; treat the day session as a breakout setup with the overnight high (1.3212) and low (1.3185) as reference prices for a breakout move.
Sept. British Pound: It rallied out of a breakout setup after a gap lower open last night. I would watch a rally for a short sale opportunity.
Dec. Gold: Breakout setup (ID, range contraction, doji); it’s still stuck within Friday’s range.
Oct. Sugar: TTT Buy day. Friday’s low of 15.61 is the reference price; the Fibonacci retracement level at 15.81 will be a pivot point for extending the rally.
Dec. Coffee: There has been a small (so far) selloff out of a breakout setup; I would look to short on a break of the session low of 185.75.
Dec. Cotton: By the TTT today is a Sell day. Friday was an inside day; this combination can lead to an upside breakout. Consider buying on a rally; watch the overnight high of 66.44 and Friday’s high of 66.67.
Oct. Natural Gas: It’s starting to rally out of a breakout setup. On the upside watch the overnight high of 3.972 (trend line resistance) and then Thursday’s high of 3.988.
Nov. Soybeans: It gapped lower overnight. Treat the day session as a breakout setup with the overnight high (1037-0) and low (1032-4) as the reference prices.
Dec. KC Wheat: It’s an “exit breakout buys” day so a TTT Sell Short day is anticipated. I bring this up because I would look for a selloff as a buying opportunity.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
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