This is a sample entry from Drew Rathgeber’s newsletter, The Rath Overlay, published on Friday, August 15, 2014.
Gold is currently trading at $1,313.50 (Z4) per troy oz. holding above psychological support of $1,300 (Z4) per troy oz. meanwhile Silver is doing the exact opposite. Silver is currently trading at $19.90 (U4) per troy oz. still holding below resistance of $20.00. Interesting note is the decoupling of Gold and Silver as they are headed in opposite directions. In the indices, the Emini S&P really threw everyone for a classic ‘whip-saw’ effect, with a head-fake to the downside, now trending back up currently trading at 1958.25 (U4) only 26 points from its recent record highs. The same applies to the Emini Dow, Nasdaq, Russell, & Midcap. The grains sector is starting to show some upside action, with Corn bouncing off its recent lows and now trading at $3.73bu (Z4), Soybeans $10.51bu (X4), and Wheat at $5.39bu (U4), note Corn has a fresh upside cross 15/40 EMA indicating some bullish momentum. The energy sector is starting to weaken some, watching Natural Gas trading off its recent highs at $3.941 (X4) mmBtu, and Crude Oil holding below $100.00, currently trading at $95.50 per barrel holding its downward tilt.
On the economic news front we had flat retail sales, forecasted .2%, and it was .1% which is a bit discerning. If its flat now and we have another cold and snowy winter in the north east, expect further declines. Jobless claims this week seems shows a very, slight improvement even though it rose to 311,000 new claims. Unemployment rate is still reporting 6.2% (U-3), and the (U-6) Unemployment rate of 12.2%.
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In The News
U.S. Stock-Index Futures Decline on Amazon, Visa Results
The U.S. and global recoveries have been “disappointing” so far and may point to a permanent downshift in economic potential, U.S. Federal Reserve vice Chair Stanly Fish said on Monday. In an overview of the years since the 2007-2009 financial crises and recession, Fisher said a slowing of U.S. productivity declining labor force participation and other factors have scarred the United States ability to generate economic growth. (more)
IMO: When the Feds dropped interest’s rates to almost zero, we knew we were headed towards Japanese type of economic stagnation. This slow recovery shouldn’t be a surprise. The only people this recovery has been good for are people with access to the Stock Market & Credit.
Billionaire Paulson Maintains Stake in Biggest Gold ETF
Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson stuck with his holding in the biggest exchange-traded product backed by gold as prices rose on demand for a haven. Paulson & Co., the largest investing kept its stake at 10.23 million shares in the three months ended June 30, a government filing showed yesterday. The holdings were unchanged for the fourth straight quarter. (more)
IMO: Still not sure why he holds paper vs. the real physical futures. A. GLD doesn’t even follow physical futures prices. B. GLD is very expensive to hold and trade (Carrying Cost), C. It’s not FULLY backed by Gold, only 1/10th is backed by physical Gold Bullion.
S&P: Wealth gap is slowing US economic growth
Economists have long argued that rising wealth gap has complicated the U.S. rebound from the Great Recession. Now, analysis by the rating agency Standard & Poor’s lends its weight to the argument: The widening gap between the wealthiest American and everyone else has made the economy more prone to boom-bust cycles and slowed the 5-year-old recovery from the recession. (more)
STOP ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE STOP PRICE BECAUSE STOP ORDERS, IF THE PRICE IS HIT, BECOME MARKET ORDERS AND, DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS, THE ACTUAL FILL PRICE CAN BE DIFFERENT FROM THE STOP PRICE. IF A MARKET REACHED ITS DAILY PRICE FLUCTUATION LIMIT, A "LIMIT MOVE", IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE A STOP LOSS ORDER.
In The Markets
Emini S&P (ES)
Market Comments: Go back to sleep, back on its upward trend.
Market Comments: Still holding above $1,300, however volatility has disappeared from the precious metals complex. The uptrend is still intact, and need to get above $1,330 to breakout.
U.S. Dollar (DX-M)
Market Comments: Hitting overhead resistance, let’s see if it breaks through next week and makes higher highs!
IMO – In My Opinion
Rath Moving Average Cross Strategy Guide
This guide is written by Drew Rathgeber, a seasoned commodity trader who has worked with a variety of clients to help them find which trading strategy best suits their goals.
THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE IN FUTURES TRADING BECAUSE OF SMALL MARGIN REQUIREMENTS. THIS LEVERAGE CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU AND CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS LARGE GAINS.
THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.
THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.
TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.
YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.
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