The German ZEW survey for August showed investor sentiment fell to an 8 month low; this weighed on the Euro and European stocks. US stocks are staying buoyant as it looks like we’re going to close out the Q2 earnings season with better news than traders had anticipated. Crude oil was pressured by an IEA report that forecast lower crude demand for 2014 and 1H2015. There’s no significant US economic data today; we get the results of a 3 year T Note auction at Noon CT. I commented on it below; there’s a USDA grain report due at 11 AM CT.
Sept. eMini S&P Futures: By the Taylor Trading Technique today is a Sell day, which would suggest we would look for a rally to 1941.00 (the 20 day EMA is at 1940.17, which is resistance as well.) Monday was an NR7; this gives today the possibility of a breakout move; we would want to keep an open mind as to direction for that setup. Watch yesterday afternoon’s low of 1931.25 as the first reference price for a downside breakout.
Sept. eMini NASDAQ Futures: TTT Sell Short day. Monday’s high of 3917.75 is the reference price for that setup. However, Monday was an NR7 day as well so Monday’s high could also be a level to watch for an upside breakout move. Let the market tell where it wants to go. Downside breakout levels would be 3903 and then 3897.50.
Sept. eMini Russell: TTT Sell Short day, watch last week’s high of 1130.30 as a pivot point for a selloff.
Sept. T Bonds: Breakout setup (NR7, doji). Use Monday’s low (and the 29 July high) of 139-03 as the downside reference price; 139-14 and then 139-19 on the upside.
Sept. Yen: Breakout setup- will it try an upside breakout now? Use .9800 as the first upside breakout level; 9813 would be next. On the downside use the overnight low of 9771.
Sept. Euro: It sold off out of a breakout setup; last week’s low of 1.3335 would be the final test for a downside breakout.
Sept. Swiss Franc: Same breakout setup and downside move as the Euro; last week’s low of 1.0974 is the next key downside level.
Sept British Pound: Surprise, another currency with a breakout setup. The first attempt at a downside breakout failed, will it rally now? Watch Monday’s high of 1.6791 and then trend line resistance at 1.6797 as reference prices for an upside breakout.
Sept. Canadian Dollar: It’s a TTT Sell day and Monday was an inside day; I would consider shorting on a break below the session low of 9122.
Sept. Australian Dollar: Breakout setup (ID, NR4); I would consider buying if it rallies above Monday’s high of 9264.
Dec. Gold: Breakout setup (ID, NR7, doji). I like the long side above 1312.90 and 1315.50 is an upside pivot level. Trade or Fade (my breakout trade advisory) has the upside breakout level at 1316.80 and the first target at 1324.50.
Oct. Sugar: It’s an “exit breakout buys” day so a TTT Sell Short day is anticipated. 16.37 is the reference price; I would also consider shorting a break below the session low of 16.19.
Sept. Crude Oil: Today was a Sell Short day. It sold off and is beginning to recover; I might look to buy on a rally back above the 97.50 to 97.60 area for a scalp.
Oct. Live Cattle: It rallied yesterday but that did nothing to change the down trend. Watch the 11 July low of 149.45 as the reference price for a selloff.
Grain Futures: There’s a USDA crop production and supply / demand report out today at 11 AM CT. Traders anticipate the USDA will raise their yield estimates for corn and beans; with sentiment so bearish it’s possible we could see if a rally if traders decide the report isn’t bearish enough. This isn’t the kind of thinking I use to make trade decisions but knowing a bit about a market’s psychology can be helpful sometimes.
Nov. Soybeans: It’s a TTT Buy day; watch the overnight low of 1067-0 and Monday’s low of 1072-2 as reference prices.
Dec. Corn: I would consider shorting a break below 362-2 (Monday low) and 361-0 (last week’s low).
Dec. Soymeal: Breakout setup of sorts (doji, but a pretty big range on Monday); I would be short below Monday’s low of 347.70.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
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