Last night saw weak economic news to pile on to the fear over geopolitics. It centers on Europe. The Polish PM said the risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine increased as Russia amassed troops on the border. Europe also saw weak economic data. Italy’s GDP showed a decline in 2Q14 and both German and UK factory orders posted weak numbers. There isn’t any significant US economic data today. The June trade balance posted a smaller than expected deficit for June; exports were good but soft imports may reflect a lack of economic confidence in the US. At 9:30 AM CT is the weekly EIA petroleum inventory report; crude oil stocks are forecast to have declined by 1.5 million barrels last week.
Sept. eMini S&P Futures: It’s a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day; yesterday’s low of 1907.50 is the reference price and the evening low of 1911.00 is first resistance.
Sept. eMini NASDAQ: Another TTT Buy day; watch last Friday’s low of 3847.50 as the reference price.
Sept. eMini Russell: Tuesday was an NR4 day and a doji. The other stock indices are on a TTT Buy day signal and by a strict reading the Russell would be as well. For either setup we should watch 1110.40 as the reference price.
Sept T Bonds: It’s currently testing the recent high of 139-03; will it push above there (breakout) or turn back down (TTT Sell Short day)?
Sept. Euro: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day so a Buy day is anticipated. Tuesday’s low of 1.3360 is the Buy day reference price; last week’s swing low of 1.3369 would be first resistance for a rally. The daily trend is down; be careful with trading from the long side.
Sept British Pound: Sell Short day and Tuesday was an NR4 day. Look to be short below 1.6840; last week’s low of 1.6805 is the next downside target.
Sept Canadian Dollar: “Cover b.o. sales” / TTT Buy day. 9101 is the reference price; the 9128 level is the first objective / resistance for a rally.
Dec. Gold: Good rally out of a “cover b.o. sales” TTT Buy day setup. Watch 1298.00 as support and trend line resistance at 1305.10.
Sept. Cocoa: It’s a TTT Sell day and Tuesday was doji. A rally above could see follow through; Monday’s high of 3239 would be the target.
Sept. Coffee: Breakout setup (ID, NR4, doji). An early downside breakout failed; will it rally now? For upside reference prices watch the overnight high of 189.90 and then the Fibonacci retracement level of 190.70.
Dec. Cotton: Breakout setup (ID, NR4). For an upside breakout watch Monday’s high of 64.61, on the downside use yesterday’s low of 63.32.
Sept. Crude Oil: It’s a TTT Buy day but thus far today it hasn’t done much. For now I’d leave it be and then maybe look for a breakout move after the 9:30 AM inventory report.
Sept. Natural Gas: Sell Short day. Tuesday’s high of 3.915 is the reference price; last week’s swing high of 3.890 is a reference price for a selloff. The daily trend is up; I would look for an opportunity to go long on a break.
Nov. Soybeans: Treat today as a breakout day; use yesterday’s low of 1058-4 on the downside and the overnight high of 1070-2 on the upside.
Sept. Wheat: It’s on a TTT Sell Short day signal, maybe the retreat from the mid July high of 561-6 will be the move for that. I’m looking to buy on a selloff, maybe in the mid 540 area.
Dec. Soymeal: Breakout setup; watch 340.00 down and 345.40 up.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
In this guide, experienced trader and broker Scott Hoffman explains the trading methods he uses to analyze and trade the futures markets and to publish his trade advisory, Swing Trader’s Insight.
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