The market rout continued last night ahead of the July employment report. That report was on the bullish side- July jobs came in a bit lower than expectations (209K actual vs. 233K exp.) but was still the sixth month of above 200K new jobs. Hourly earnings were a help; they came in unchanged when a gain was expected. This took away some of the worry from yesterday’s Q2 ECI. Concern about the pace of Fed rate hikes was a big factor in the recent selloff; the employment report takes some of the fear away (for now). Later this morning, at 8:55 AM CT we get the July Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index; it is expected to be up 0.2 to 81.5. At 9 AM is the July ISM manufacturing index; the forecast is for a gain of 0.7 to 56.0.
Sept. eMini S&P Futures: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day so a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day is anticipated. At this point watch Thursday’s 1923.50 low as the reference price. Yesterday’s close of 1924.75 and the overnight high of 1930.75 are resistance levels to watch; the previous overnight swing high of 1917.00 is first support. There’s a lot of bearish momentum for the bulls to overcome.
Sept. eMini Russell Futures: TTT Buy day. 1114.80 is the Buy day reference price; bulls need to push it back above the 1124.00 area.
Sept. T Bonds: It’s a TTT Sell day; Thursday’s high of 137-24 is the Sell day objective.
Sept. Euro: Breakout setup (ID, doji, range contraction). An upside rally failed; will it break down now? Watch 1.3380 (session low) and 1.3369 (Weds. low) as reference prices for a downside breakout. Watch the 1.3400 area as an upside pivot point.
Dec. Gold: “cover b.o. sales” / TTT Buy day. It already had the low violation buy. Now the 24 July low of 1289.40 is a pivot point for a rally; Fibonacci retracement resistance at 1297.80 is the next resistance.
Sept. Silver: TTT Buy day. It held at 50 day MA support (20.30); the first rally objective is 20.54.
Sept. Cocoa: TTT Sell Short day. The selloff successfully tested the recent low of 3160; I would consider going long if it holds above that level.
Sept. Crude Oil: TTT Buy day, scalp only. The 98.00 area is a pivot point for the rally; the 15 July low of 98.69 will be resistance for a rally.
Nov. Soybeans: Breakout setup (NR7, doji). Use the overnight low of 1071-2 as the first downside reference price and the night session open (1077-2) on the upside.
Dec. Corn: Thursday was an NR7 day; will there be a breakout move today? Last week’s low of 364-2 is the key level on the downside.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
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