News flow was mixed and it’s a big week for economic news flow. On the negative side, Goldman cuts its rating on global stocks, saying they anticipate a stock selloff as inflation concerns will push up government bond prices. Chinese stocks were higher on report of higher profits from industrial firms. M&A gave a boost as well, namely Dollar Tree’s agreement to buy Family Dollar stores. At 8:45 AM CT we get the Markit PMI services index for July; it is forecast to be down 1.2 to 60.0. At 9 AM is the pending home sales index for June; estimates are for an increase of 0.5% after a big jump in May. Soybeans were higher overnight; Chinese soybean prices jumped last night and there has been some demand for US beans.
Sept. eMini S&P Futures: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day so a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day is anticipated. Friday’s low of 1968.00 is the Buy day reference price; there was a low violation buy overnight. For the day session I’d look for another test of Friday’s low or a rally above resistance- for now that’s 1972.00 and then the overnight high of 1973.25. The 1976 area is the first rally target.
Sept. eMini Russell Futures: TTT Buy day. In the absence of a low violation buy, watch resistance at the Fibonacci retracement level of 1142.80.
Sept. Yen: Breakout setup; watch Friday’s high (9834) and low (9812) as breakout reference prices. Remaining below 9834 should keep the downside pressure on.
Sept. Swiss Franc: It’s a “cover b.o. sales day” so a TTT Buy day is anticipated. Regaining the 5 June low of 1.1080 could help a rally.
Sept. British Pound: Breakout setup (NR7). Friday’s high of 1.6991 is the reference price for an upside breakout.
Sept. Canadian Dollar: TTT Buy day; watch the July 16 low of 9250 as a pivot point for extending the rally.
August Gold: TTT Sell Short day. There was a high violation sale overnight; downside pivot levels are 1302.50 and then 1300.
Oct. Sugar: Breakout setup; 16.87 is the key level for a downside breakout move.
Sept. Coffee: Breakout setup; watch Friday’s high of 181.20 as the reference price for an upside breakout.
Sept. Crude Oil: Friday was a doji day as it tested Fib support at 101.17- will a break below Friday’s low (101.00) see downside follow through?
Sept. Natural Gas: It gapped lower and then rallied out of a breakout setup; I would consider buying a pullback to the low 3.805 area.
Nov. Soybeans: Breakout setup (NR4, doji). For the day session I would watch the overnight high (1099-6) and low (1090-2) as breakout reference prices. The next rally resistance would be Thursday’s high of 1107-2.
Sept. Wheat: Breakout setup; I would short a break below the overnight low of 532-0.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
In this guide, experienced trader and broker Scott Hoffman explains the trading methods he uses to analyze and trade the futures markets and to publish his trade advisory, Swing Trader’s Insight.
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