In unexpected news, Russia’s central bank raised its 1 week auction rate. Ostensibly this was to curb inflation but it was more likely an effort to stem capital outflows. Amazon posted a weak earnings report; this is also weighing on equities. The German Ifo survey for July showed business sentiment was weaker than expected. In US news, June durable goods orders staged a good comeback after a big drop in May. Soybeans were lower as they couldn’t maintain the strength from yesterday’s strong export sales report. Look for volatility to increase as we move into the critical development phase in August.
Sept. eMini S&P Futures: Breakout setup (NR7, doji). Watch the overnight low (1975.50) and high (1980.75) as the first breakout reference prices. Trade or Fade (my breakout trade advisory) has breakout levels at 1972.81 down and 1984.69 up.
Sept. eMini NASDAQ Futures: Another breakout setup; watch the overnight high and low as breakout reference prices.
Sept. eMini Russell: It’s a “cover breakout sales” day so a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day is anticipated. Watch the Fibonacci retracement level at 1142.80 as a reference price this morning. The daily trend is down; don’t overstay the long side.
Sept. 10 Year T Note: TTT Buy day. The Thursday low of 124-30.5 is the Buy day reference price; clearing Fib resistance at 125-08 could help a rally.
Sept. Yen: TTT Buy day. 9821 is the Buy day reference price. There’s resistance at the overnight high of 9835. I might wait to buy on a rally above that level as the daily trend is down.
Sept Euro: Thursday was a doji and ROC is on a sell signal- look to be short below 1.3439.
August Gold: Treat today as a “Z” day (mean reversion, buy breaks, sell rallies) after yesterday’s large range day.
Sept. Copper: It’s an “exit b.o. buys” day; Thursday’s high of 326.90 is the reference price for the anticipated TTT Sell Short day.
Sept. Cocoa: It’s a strong bull market; was yesterday’s pullback enough for a TTT Buy day today? Watch for a rally above the session high of 3205.
Sept. Crude Oil: Breakout setup (ID, NR4). Trade or Fade has the downside breakout level at 101.29 with a first target of 100.54.
Nov. Soybeans: TTT Sell Short day; watch the night session low of 1072-6 as a reference price for the day session.
Dec. Corn: TTT Sell Short day; 364-2 is the downside reference price.
Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading
In this guide, experienced trader and broker Scott Hoffman explains the trading methods he uses to analyze and trade the futures markets and to publish his trade advisory, Swing Trader’s Insight.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADE PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF THE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
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