This is a sample entry from Brian Cullen’s email newsletter, The Cullen Outlook.
I hope everyone had a safe and happy 4th of July holiday! Let’s jump into the week ahead…
Indices and Financials:
On Thursday ahead of the 3 day weekend, the Bond market spiked lower to 134’11 only to recover before the close and now sits at 135’30. I would like to see this market retraces to 135’15-ish before jumping in on the long side. The upside target would be just above 137’00
In the Currencies:
The Australian Dollar has found some support here at 93.00 after the 2 day sell-off to end last week. After missing getting short by a few ticks, I would like to entertain the idea of buying a dip at 93.30 and risking under the lows of June 17th and July 3rd, around the 92.45 level.
The British Pound after breaking above 170.40 looks like it is trying to curl lower after being turned away from the 171.70 level twice. I like selling this contract around the 171.00 level while risking above that recent high point, around 172.00 Mini contract are available which are 1/2 the size ($625.00 for a full point move, 171.00 to 170.00)
CHART WATCH! The Canadian Dollar has a similar ‘curling lower’ look. This market had an unbelievable June. (91.00 to 94.00) I like selling at 93.50 while risking above the recent highs around 94.20
In the Energies:
The Natural Gas market saw a pretty big sell-off yesterday. It dipped 18+ cents and is trading this morning at 4.21 1/2 . The level of support that I would have liked to see hold was the 4.30 level, which it did not. I would like to buy if we can get back above this 4.30 level and get back inside the 4.30 – 4.80 channel.
In the Crude Oil market, I look towards the old phrase, “old resistance becomes new support”. Back in the beginning of June, we held the 101.70 level (old resistance in mid-April) and jumped to 107.00. We are now back at 103.40, which was old resistance from late May. Using mini contracts, I like getting long under 103.50 with a $1.00 risk. I think the upside can see over 106.00 to get started. If futures spreads is something you prefer, have a look at buying the September (102.90) and selling the December at (100.60) for a spread price of 2.40 You would want this spread to widen. Have a look at a chart if you can, I will most likely be sending one out later today.
In the Grains:
We have seen some follow through selling across the entire grain complex. I would like to see some sort of pause or bounce this week before Friday’s WASDE report on Friday at 11:00a (cst). We shall stay tuned…
In the Metals:
CHART WATCH! in the Gold market. After breaking below the coil that we were following in late May and trading down to 1240.0, we have traded up to 1320.0 This was the upper end of that very same coil on April 14th. We have been struggling with this level for 2 weeks now and my bias would be to short this market around this 1320.0 level as it appears “tired” up here after the 1 day $40.00+ spike on June 19th. Risking 1340.0 or so, we could get involved in a couple mini contracts. Silver may see the same struggle. Selling around 21.10 and risking 21.40 if you prefer this market to Gold.
In the Livestock:
This sector has seen significant moves higher over the past 2 weeks. The contrarian in me would love to be selling at some point but I would like to see some confirmation to the downside first. I will be sending out some future spread ideas in the next few days. This will be the way that we may approach this sector in the near term.
In the Softs:
We have the short Cocoa position from 3110. (It is currently at 30.94). We also have the long Sugar from 17.50 (currently at 17.43) so we will manage both of these trades accordingly.
The Orange Juice market found some familiar support at the 146.00 level to start the month off. With recent highs being in the 166.00 area, this curling action to the upside has me intrigued. Risking below the 145.00 level, I like the idea of buying in here near 150.50 if we can see it in the next few days (currently at 150.95). CHART WATCH! There may be a lot of room to run higher to above 160.00 to start and a test of the recent highs of 167.00 would be the target.
The September Coffee market has been in a channel between 168.00 and 180.00. This level was very good support in late March/early April. This will be a market that is on my watch list on both sides of price action. Breaking below 168.00 would definitely look like a great shorting opportunity in my opinion but I wouldn’t rule out seeing if we can break above 174.00 for a long position. Perhaps buying an inexpensive strangle in December would be an idea, have a look…
That will be what I am looking at as we head into the week. Call the desk or email if you need anything or if there is a market or 2 that you would like to look at together.
LET’S DO THIS!
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