This is a sample entry from Brian Cullen’s email newsletter, The Cullen Outlook.
It is good to be back! I hope everyone had a great week!
I am getting back in the groove with the markets after 5 trading days away, but there are a few markets that have my attention, so let’s get right to it.
(Friday’s Pre-Dawn should be full throttle…)
Indices and Financials:
The ES and mini-Dow continue to look as if it wants to roll over to the downside. But yet it fights back everytime it has a dip. Last week was strong from the start and look as if it would close the week on all-time highs. But it failed and close a touch lower than Thursday’s close. This week may be where a correction starts to gain traction? Lets see where the market opens this morning and see if we can find a spot to get short with a solid stop level.
The Aussie Dollar is back below the 93.25 level (old highs early April and mid-May). We saw it dip down here last Tuesday and responded strongly the next day. But I think it is technically due for a correction. I like selling it at 93.40 with a stop just above the highs at the 94.00 level.
The British Pound is also curling over to the downside sitting on a resistance point from late April of 169.70 I like selling it here while risking 100 points above the recent highs of 170.60 It has some room to run if we break lower. Mark 167.60 down as a good spot to look for.
(side notes: The Yen is coiling near the 98.00 level while the Euro is staging a rally up to near term resistance at 136.50)
We have our long Aug Crude Oil contract form 106.00 Lets see where the Energy Inventory numbers come in this morning at 9:30 (cst) and manage the trade acordingly. Initial indications are for tightening supplies so we’ll see…
The August RBOB has consolidated up around the 3.08 – 3.10 level over the past week. This is a BIG contract with a mini-contract that is not very liquid! Each point is $420.00 (ex: 3.09 – 3.10) Meaning if we wanted to get short at 3.08 and risk up to 3.12, that would be $1680.00 risk (a bit too much for me). So if you have the ability to look at spread charts, perhaps we look to the August / December bear spread as a way to get short this market. Or a put option is another great way!
I cant think of a good reason for Corn to rally besides a weather story, so I will be looking to get short on any rallies that we see moving forward. Ideally, the 4.50 level would be a good enough rally for me to take action. Risking just above the peak on June 6th of 4.60-ish
September Kansas City Wheat is an interesting chart to keep an eye on. The 7.10 level I would have liked to see hold (to buy the bounce) but we closed below it yesterday. There is a lot of air under this level clear down to 6.70 with a small gap at 6.81 to fill.
August Soymeal has seen a steady decline over the past month. Keep the 3.88 level on your radar. I would like to see how the market reacts if we can get there!
We have a Grain Stocks report this coming Monday at 11:00 (cst) so keep that in mind. Anything we do this week, I will most likely be flat any grain positions ahead of that number.
I sent out a Market To Watch in the September Cocoa yesterday. We closed below the 30.60 level that I wanted you to keep an eye on. We have a short December Cotton from 77.50 that I will probably be moving the stop on if we can clear 76.50 today.
Lastly, CHART WATCH! the October Sugar was turned away from the 18.80 level for the 4th time since the beginning of March. I like selling somewhere here near 18.60 and risking up over 19.00 (short term objective would be 18.20 with support ultimately at 17.60)
Nothing for now
Time to ring the mid-week bell! Call in if you have any thoughts or ideas to go over. As far as my clients go, if I havent spoken to you already, expect a phone call today!
LETS DO THIS!!!
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