Happy Friday. I hope everyone had a great week, lets finish it up on a high note and get involved in the weekend. We have a few positions on and there are a few that I want to bring to your attention. So lets get crackin’…
In the Indices and Financials:
With yesterday’s price action in the Bonds, I would like to get long this market from the 135’10 level, if we can see it today. We have made a nice curl off of the 3+ point sell-off in the past week. Yesterday we spiked lower (taking the market almost 4 points from the highs mid day!) and it looked like it was going to continue but not only did we rally, we closed POSITIVE on the day! A re-test of the broken trendline from last week (which, in my opinion, may be a very good reason we are down at these levels this morning) would be around the 137’00 level, which is also about a 50% retracement.
In the Energies:
CHART WATCH! The Crude Oil market traded higher off of what could have been taken as a bearish inventory number on Wednesday but closed lower on the day leaving an extended “tail” on the top of the candlestick. Yesterday, however, quite the opposite as we spiked lower to start the day only to rally and finish virtually unchanged, this time leaving an extended “tail” on the bottom of the candlestick. I think Crude Oil ultimately trades lower and I would like to get short this market on a break of the 102.00 level, with a stop order above the mid-April resistance of 103.00 – 103.20 level. If you would like to see it trade a bit higher first, I think anywhere above 104.00 is a great place to start.
In the Currencies:
We have our short Canadian Dollar from 91.30, which is finding small support here, we will see how it goes. And our long Euro Currency from 136.00 (barely making it through the ECB announcement, just 2 ticks from our stop!) The Aussie Dollar continues to trade higher and will possibily face some resistance at 33.60 (currently at 93.48) CHART WATCH! The Japanese Yen once again found support at the 97.50 level (currently at 97.73). There has a trading range from 97.50 to 98.70 that looks intriguing. I like the idea of getting long here with a risk of 97.20 There is a mini-Yen which is 1/2 the size of the regular, $6.25 a point, the symbol is J7M4.
In the Grains:
We have our short 2 November mini-Soybean contracts from 1206’0 I like this trade alot as long as we can remain under 1210’0 Should this market break below 1200’0, we will move our stop.
In the Metals:
It may not be a bad idea to step into the Gold market here (August is front month) at around the 1250.0 area and get long. Yesterday was the first bright spot for gold bulls since May 14th when it was dealing with the coiling price action between 1280.0 and 1320.0 Under this week’s support level of 1240.0 I think would be plenty to risk if you try to catch a bounce in this market and just above 1300.0 would be a nice area to look towards, short term objective wise, if filled. This also coincides with the 1240.0 support from mid to late January before the charge higher to near 1400.0
In the Meats:
It has been a while since we traded one in the newsletter, but I brought a seasonal spread to your attention yesterday. Buying the July / August Lean Hog at -6.00. This market on Wednesday made an all time spread low of -6.50 This has been an astounding sell-off to say the least. As soon as I saw the positive day that took place yesterday, I just had to send out that trade idea. The stop order is just under that low at -7.00, my thought process being if we can catch a bounce it may be a great trade but if the sell-off continues, I want out as soon as possible. It currently at -5.70, so we will see if we can get filled today and take it from there.
In the Softs:
The July Coffee market is sitting on old support levels at 171.00 this morning. Interesting level to watch with room to trade lower if it breaks.
The Sugar market DID close below 17.00 yesterday and stopped us out at 16.85 I wanted to catch a bounce in this market but also mentioned looking to get short should we get stopped out and I will be looking for that oppportunity to get involved early this morning. Be ready!
Also, I mentioned on Tuesday morning’s Pre-Dawn Update of a possible Sugar seasonal spread that would be coming out from Daniels Trading soon and I think it hits the website today. It is published by Craig Turner following the methodolgy of Moore Research. Check it out when you can. I will send out in the newsletter when it is available.
That just about does it on a brisk morning in Chicago. Call in or email any ideas that you see that you would like to get involved in today!
LET’S DO THIS!
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