This is a sample entry from Brian Cullen’s email newsletter, The Cullen Outlook, published on June 03, 2014.
Before we begin, the CHART WATCH! webinar this week is locked and loaded! We will be going over some consolidation reversal type trades so I hope you can all make it! The turnouts have been amazing and the attendee participation, although unexpected, continues to be encouraged! Unfortunately, the webcam does not record throughout the video, so the links of any archives sent have no video component to them. Another reason to make it LIVE! Reserve your seat below.
CHART WATCH! Chart Reviews and Market To Watch…Wednesday at 2:00pm (cst):
And away we go…
In the Indices and Financials:
CHART WATCH! Follow me here…The Bond market has recently rallied 2 1/2 points and BUT has given back 1 1/2 so far as of yesterday…if you look at a chart you will see almost the exact 2 1/2 point rally and 1 1/2 point retracement from April 30 to May 12 AND AGAIN from May 13 to May 22. I am not saying that this will happen again, no one knows where we will go, BUT this will be interesting to see how it reacts as it is sitting on a very calculated uptrendline here at 136’02. I like trying to buy in at this trendline support (currently at 136’00) and risking under the May 22th low of 135’13. If we break this trendline we could see the lows of May 12th tested at 134’12.
We have our short mini-Dow position on from 16675 (currently at 16709) which would possibly benefit from a Bond rally. I still like holding this position and I am also still considering adding an additional mini-Dow contract if we should see this market break 16600. Stay tuned…
In the Currencies:
The Aussie Dollar WAS back at support early in the overnight session that we have seen before but it bounced around 11:00pm. The 92.00 – 92.25 level that you guys are probably tired of hearing me talk about. But it is and I would like to get involved on the long side if we get inside this level in the next few days (currently at 92.63). Risking it below the Apr 3rd and May 2nd lows to the 91.50 level still seems like plenty, 93.50 would be the objective. CHART WATCH! If this level fails to hold after providing support since the end of March, we may have a short position idea to act on. Perhaps a 2 lot stop order would be a good idea on any long positions established today or tomorrow. (I wrote a blog article on this idea that I expect to be published this week. Ill send the link in the next Pre-Dawn Update if its available by then). ***This market (as well as Crude Oil and Soybeans recently) is a perfect example of how quickly the markets are giving and taking away, so be diligent in moving any stops and/or exiting positions when you can. Hitting homeruns are nice but stringing together some singles and doubles score runs too!***
We have our long Euro currency position from 136.00 so we will manage this accordingly, currently at 136.11.
Side notes: The Japanese Yen chart looks like the polygraph of a guilty man. Again, another market that is giving and taking very quickly! And the British Pound is in the middle of a down trading channel, have a look. There may be something to do in this market in a few days. I would imagine either at the 168.50 or 166.50 levels. Lastly, how much lower can the Swiss Franc go before seeing some sort of retracement?
In the Energies:
We exited our short Crude Oil position ahead of the inventory report last Thursday because I thought it was the smart thing to do since we had modest gains at the time and I had no real feel for how it would go. But I am thinking I want back in short and here is why. I am looking towards the old resistance point from Apr 16th to 22nd of 102.75 as old resistance currently failing as new support. I thought we may see more of a bounce of those old highs on May 29th but we did not and we may have room for further break down. We have come down pretty steady since May 26th when we were above 104.00 Perhaps 102.50 risking 103.75? Trendline support should come in at around 101.00
In the Grains:
What more can I say besides I had a rough go to start the week, we have all been there. Yesterday we were stopped out of the long Corn, long KC Wheat and short Soymeal positions that we held from last week. Like a good relief pitcher you need to have a bad memory when these things happen to you…and move on as quickly as possible! There is fundamental information aplenty this time of year as we get into the planting season (harvest for wheat). Crop Progress reports every week, weather (or lack there of) is always front and center and talked about on a daily basis. The markets move quickly and can turn on any given smattering of news so keep your head on a swivel and take what the market gives you when it does. That being said, I will be looking at the 15.10 level in Soybeans for a possible shorting opportunity. I still fee like with 2 mini contracts, the risk of 15.45 is a good place to focus on for a stop. (The new crop November went from 12.20 on May 19th to 12.80 on May 22nd and back to 12.20 yesterday…WOW!)
In the Softs:
The Sugar market is quickly approaching major support again at 17.10 (currently at 17.18). I would like to get long this market if we see a bounce here. The stop level would be the 16.85 level, giving the 17.00 level a little room to breathe before throwing in the towel. CHART WATCH! This chart is another one that has a lot of room to run lower if 17.00 support does not hold, so look to possibly make the stop loss a 2 lot order and see if we can participate in a break to the downside if we are “long and wrong”. 16.40 would be the next level of support followed by 15.20 if you can believe it! For those who like futures spreads, there may be a July / October Sugar spread idea in the works, I’ll let you know if I hear anything more on it!
CHART WATCH! After the Cocoa market gapped open on Friday and took us out of our short position, look at the bearish hammer that formed! We quickly filled that gap yesterday with a 30 point trading range that looked as if it was going to break higher in the 1st half of the day only to back off lower into the close. Although still positive on the day, I am looking for a break below yesterday’s low of 30.49 to initiate another short position. The risk would be a play off of that 30.79 high.
I know I tell you guys in the webinars quite often DO NOT take markets that you are stopped out of off your watchlists. It is very possile that the thought process and set-up may still be there but your timing was a bit off. And there is nothing wrong with continuing to look for your spot to get back in if the set-up that you saw still looks good to you. Timing is everything and, in my opinion, it is also the most difficult aspect of trading. So hang in the pocket and keep your eyes downfield!
Tuesday is here…now go get it!
LET’S DO THIS!
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