This is a sample entry from Drew Rathgeber’s newsletter, The Rath Overlay, published on Thursday, April 17, 2014.
This week we definitely witnessed some wipe-saw action in the indices and are now net-neutral in terms of market price. While on the other hand Soybeans made new highs, Corn might be making a double top and the same with Wheat. In the precious metals complex we are having a huge battle around the $1,300oz for Gold still technically looking bearish, however fundamentally bullish with the Crimea situation and I believe some added premium has been built in due to this situation maybe around $55-$75 per ounce.
Also have seen an uptick in retail sales readings, indicating an uptick in economic activity as it grew 1.1%. After a very long winter, we can finally get back to business as usual and I expect this trend to continue. We had an expectation in housing starts of 910,000, with the actual number being 946,000 which showed a slight improvement. This week crude inventories indicated a build 10.0 million barrels, actually second highest it’s been in years.
We have tomorrow Good Friday off, so don’t expect any activity and have a terrific Easter!
In The News
86M Full-Time Private-Sector Workers Sustain 148M Benefit Takers
Buried deep on the website of the U.S. Census Bureau is a number every American citizen, and especially those entrusted with public office, should know. It is 86,429,000.
That is the number of Americans who in 2012 got up every morning and went to work — in the private sector — and did it week after week after week. (more)
IMO: When I first read this, made me very concerned about our Job situation and growth in this country. Also, we have an aging population with the baby boomer generation exiting the job force, approximately 70 million.
Dollar struggles on Yellen’s dovish stance, pound at four-and-half year high.
(Reuters) – The dollar fell against a basket of currencies on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated an accommodative monetary policy stance in comments.
Dollar weakness saw the pound at its highest level against the U.S. currency since late 2009 as investors continued to price in expectations for a UK rate hike in the first quarter of next year after strong jobs and wages data on Wednesday. (more)
IMO: In chart technical terms the dollar still looks pretty weak, which in turn should be bullish for the precious metals complex. However, what I’m actually seeing is a very stagnate market in U.S. Dollar & Gold terms should be interesting if we maintain this stance through Spring and into Summer.
In The Markets
Emini S&P (ES)
Market Comments: Technically, we see some bearish indicators then it recovered like it has for over a year. We have overhead resistance at 1871.00, and support around 1830.00 and been stuck in this channel since February.
Gold (GGC)
Market Comments: Gold had a decent drop of all days ‘Tax Day,’ April 15th and traded as low as $1,284.4 per troy ounce. Has since recovered to around $1,302.00, and currently holding above key psychological support of $1,300.00. This battle in this area has been dragging out for some time, and I tread lightly heading into May.
U.S. Dollar (DX-M)
Market Comments: Dollar never did confirm a bullish cross like I mentioned in the last report. Technical outlook still bearish with support coming in at 79.50, and overhead resistance at 80.00.
The Week Ahead
- 4/22 – Existing Home Sales 10:00AM ET
- 4/23 – EIA Petro Report 10:30AM ET
- 4/24 – Jobless Claims 8:30AM ET
- 4/25 – Consumer Sentiment 9:55AM ET
IMO – In My Opinion
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