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Home / Futures Blog / The Rath Overlay (Mar 14 2014)

The Rath Overlay (Mar 14 2014)

March 19, 2014 by Drew Rathgeber

This is a sample entry from Drew Rathgeber’s newsletter, The Rath Overlay, published on Friday, March 14, 2014.


By The Numbers

  • US National Debt $17,502,199,074,896
    Per Tax Payer $151,572
  • Unfunded Liabilities $128,244,551,722,026
    Per Tax Payer $1,110,620
  • Source: http://www.usdebtclock.org

In The News

Jobless Claims in U.S. Fall to Lowest Level Since November

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest level since the end of November, a sign of further improvement in the labor market. Jobless claims dropped by 9,000 to 315,000 in the week ended March 8, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a rise to 330,000. Continuing claims decreased for a third straight week. (more)

IMO: When weekly jobless claims fall below 400,000, this is considered positive economically speaking. Personally question the type of jobs that are being created to offset this report?

Gold Trades Below Four-Month High as Investors Weigh Ukraine

Gold traded below a four-month high in New York as investors weighed the crises in Ukraine and the outlook for the U.S. economy before employment data due tomorrow. Palladium was near the highest price since April. (more)

IMO: Few points, typically (not always) Gold does trade higher in the winter months and typically (not always) in this season I would call it the “War Season” when most war mongering takes place. Realize it’s just too damn hot in the summer.

Stocks Tumble To Red As “Good News Is Bad News”

A significant and surprising build in crude inventories Wednesday added more pressure to oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate futures under the key $100 level.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said that crude oil supplies for the week ended March 7 rose by 6.2 million barrels, nearly three times what the market was expecting. In its survey and analysis, Platts called for a 2.3 million barrel build.
(more)

IMO: Interesting piece, regarding geo-political test in regards to the issues in Ukraine.

Silver Under-performing – Will it last?

Since the start of 2014, the price of silver has lagged the other precious metals in many ways. Silver has really only kept pace with gold — even as silver is thought of as a leveraged bet on gold prices. Silver has notably underperformed another white metal, palladium, which is currently nearing a 52 week high. The hangover in the silver market from the 2011 price explosion still seems to be persistent, even as silver is up over 10% from its last December lows. Because silver industrial demand is still off from its 2011 peak (though many sources claim it is at least increasing) and with evidence of stockpile increases at places like the COMEX, few are taking seriously the idea that silver will ever retake its former peak of around 50 dollars, let alone move decisively to even higher levels. (more)

The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial. View the full disclosure.

In The Markets

Emini S&P (ES)

emini-sp
Market Comments: Off our highs, and if you’re looking to go long, now is your chance! Protective stops in place depending on your account size between 1835-1825.

STOP ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE STOP PRICE BECAUSE STOP ORDERS, IF THE PRICE IS HIT, BECOME MARKET ORDERS AND, DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS, THE ACTUAL FILL PRICE CAN BE DIFFERENT FROM THE STOP PRICE. IF A MARKET REACHED ITS DAILY PRICE FLUCTUATION LIMIT, A "LIMIT MOVE", IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE A STOP LOSS ORDER.

Gold (GGC)

gold
Market Comments: Gold has been very bullish due the current geo political uncertainty of Russia/Ukraine we all have been witnessing. Setting up for a battle at $1,400, and beyond!

Corn (ZC)

corn
Market Comments: We did get our back n’ fill action I mentioned last week, and now retesting 4.95 with heavy overhead resistance as this level. Will we break higher, or breakdown?

Silver (GSI)

silver

IMO – In My Opinion

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Risk Disclosure

STOP ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE STOP PRICE BECAUSE STOP ORDERS, IF THE PRICE IS HIT, BECOME MARKET ORDERS AND, DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS, THE ACTUAL FILL PRICE CAN BE DIFFERENT FROM THE STOP PRICE. IF A MARKET REACHED ITS DAILY PRICE FLUCTUATION LIMIT, A "LIMIT MOVE", IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE A STOP LOSS ORDER.

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

Filed Under: The Rath Overlay

About Drew Rathgeber

Drew began his career at one of the nation’s largest physical spot bullion dealers in 2003. From there he made the transition into commodity futures in 2006. Because he has worked on both sides of the fence, ‘Spot’ and ‘Futures’, he has an astute understanding of how the precious metals markets can work for Retail Traders, Hedgers, and Commercials. He can use this knowledge to help investors and traders alike. Drew also has years of experience in electronic software execution, automated systems, hedging, newsletters, options strategies and outright futures contracts. Through his expertise in these areas, he can guide you and answer all of your questions while teaching you how to manage risk.

Today you can see Drew working in many different capacities in the commodity futures markets. You can even see his weekly IMA Live precious metals commentary every Tuesday and Thursday or sign-up for his weekly newsletter, the “Rath Overlay”, which highlights commodity futures markets and possible future events using his time-tested yet simple trading strategy.

Drew grew up near the popular surf beaches of Southern California. Drew is still an avid surfer and snowboarder. Currently his latest craze is United States Masters Swimming (USMS). He is a nationally ranked swimmer and enjoys competitive open water distance swimming.

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Risk Disclosure

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

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