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Home / Futures Blog / Beyond the Spotlight: 30 Year Treasury Bond, Sugar and Lean Hogs – October 1, 2012

Beyond the Spotlight: 30 Year Treasury Bond, Sugar and Lean Hogs – October 1, 2012

October 1, 2012 by Don DeBartolo

For the Week of October 01, 2012

The Trade Spotlight advisory service applies the GBE trading methodology (buying or selling commodity contracts based on breakouts of chart formations and technical indicators) to identify one to two trade setups per week.

Highlighting This Week’s Potential Breakouts:

December 2012 30 Year Treasury Bond

The December 2012 30 Year Treasury Bond contract traded as high as 150’09 on Friday (9/28/12). This touch, along with the highs at 151’29 (9/04/12) and 154’17 (7/25/12), create a downward sloping trend line. A close above the trend line will trigger a buy entry. It appears the market will need to settle currently at 150’08 or higher for confirmation of a breakout. The Trend Seeker (a US Chart Company tool to determine trend direction) is currently Down but the ranking is Neutral. Perhaps it will take a break above the high of 151’29 (9/04/12) for the Trend Seeker to flip, providing confirmation to the upside. The upside target could be the twelve month high of 154’17 (7/25/12). A close above that high would trigger another entry to the upside based on the Hi-Lo Breakout Formation. The MACD and Stochastic indicators crossed over to a buy signal already.

October 2012 Sugar

The October 2012 Sugar contract has formed a 1-2-3 Bottom Formation. The twelve month contract low was made on 9/6/12 at 18.81, this set up the number one point of the formation. The market rallied to 20.25 (9/14/12) setting up the number two point of the formation. The market retraced to 18.93 (9/19/12) stopping short of the contract low and has traded higher since. That low sets up the number three point of the formation. In addition, there is an downward sloping trend line with touches at 21.32 (8/20/12), 21.00 (9/14/12), and 20.87 (9/26/12). A close above the trend line (currently 20.82) would trigger an entry to upside before the 1-2-3 Bottom Formation breakout (21.00). The MACD indicator crossed over to a buy signal, however, the Stochastic indicator crossed over to a sell signal. The Trend Seeker is currently Down. So there is no trigger until there is confirmation to the upside.

December 2012 Lean Hogs

The December 2012 Lean Hogs contract formed a Double Bottom Reversal Formation. Although it makes for a stronger formation if created over weeks or months timeframe, this current formation has been in place since the end of August. The first low was made at 70.050 (8/23/12) and tested, but not broken, on 9/07/12. At the time the trend was lower. Since the second low of 70.050 (9/07/12) the market as rallied to 75.875 (9/25/12). During the rally trading volume increased and the trend reversed to an Uptrend according to the Trend Seeker. The past couple trading sessions have tested the previous high of 73.175 (9/05/12). This high was the peak while the two lows at 70.050 were made. Look for a breakout above the high of 75.875 (9/25/12) for a continuation of this bullish formation.

Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Trade Spotlight

About Don DeBartolo

Don C. DeBartolo is a Series 3 licensed broker registered with the National Futures Association (NFA). As a former arbitrage clerk in the S&P 500 futures pit at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Don has floor trading experience. Taking his trade execution expertise and ability to navigate a fast-paced environment, Don transitioned to the brokerage side of the business. Since 2005, he has worked at Daniels Trading, a brokerage firm in the heart of the financial district in Chicago. His responsibilities as a broker include providing market analysis, trade execution, and money management to his clients around the world. In March 2010, he developed a formal trade advisory for clients of the firm seeking specific trade recommendations and subsequent risk management.

Due to his widespread proficiency and experience with the futures and commodity options markets, he is able to offer his clients timely insight, specialized trade recommendations, and educational information through various videos and writings.

Studying at Loyola University Chicago, Don discovered the international sport of rugby. Still today, he plays for the Chicago Griffins, a member of the highest league of rugby competition in the United States. Skill and discipline are two traits that carry over from the pitch to the trading screens.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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