For the Week of September 24, 2012
The Trade Spotlight advisory service applies the GBE trading methodology (buying or selling commodity contracts based on breakouts of chart formations and technical indicators) to identify one to two trade setups per week.
Highlighting This Week’s Potential Breakouts:
October 2012 Sugar
The October 2012 Sugar contract has formed a 1-2-3 Bottom Formation. The twelve month contract low was made on 9/6/12 at 18.81, this set up the number one point of the formation. The market rallied to 20.25 (9/14/12) setting up the number two point of the formation. The market retraced to 18.93 (9/19/12) stopping short of the contract low and has traded higher since. That low sets up the number three point of the formation. While there was a surge in trading volume as the first two points of the formation were made, there seems to have been a drop off the last couple sessions. If volume, and subsequently momentum, picks up look for a breakout through the number two point. Trend Seeker is currently Down but this is a trend reversal formation.
October 2012 Live Cattle
The October 2012 Live Cattle contract lows are trading along a lower trend line, touching at 119.60 (7/18/12), 123.350 (8/28/12), 125.050 (9/17/12), and 125.525 (9/21/12). A close below the lower trend line will trigger a sell entry. It appears the market will need to settle at 125.600 or lower for confirmation of a breakout. The Trend Seeker is currently Neutral. Perhaps it will take a break below the low of 125.05 (9/17/12) or even 123.350 (8/28/12) for the Trend Seeker to flip, providing confirmation to the downside. The 200-day moving average (126.475) and recent highs (126.725) could act as resistance and a natural level for stop losses. The downside target could be the twelve month low of 119.500 (4/27/12). The MACD indicator crossed over to sell signal already.
Risk Disclosure
STOP ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE STOP PRICE BECAUSE STOP ORDERS, IF THE PRICE IS HIT, BECOME MARKET ORDERS AND, DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS, THE ACTUAL FILL PRICE CAN BE DIFFERENT FROM THE STOP PRICE. IF A MARKET REACHED ITS DAILY PRICE FLUCTUATION LIMIT, A "LIMIT MOVE", IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE A STOP LOSS ORDER.
This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.
This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.
You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.