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Home / Futures Blog / Using Fibonacci to Find Trend Continuation Entries in Currency Futures

Using Fibonacci to Find Trend Continuation Entries in Currency Futures

August 16, 2012 by Scott Hoffman

This originally appeared as a blog post in Scott Hoffman’s Futures Insight Blog on Thursday, August 16, 2012.

Currency futures can be a challenge to trade. Unlike some markets that see their best liquidity (and often the best moves) during US trading hours, currencies can see action almost any time of the day or night, and some of the best moves can occur when the “home market” is open-during Tokyo trading hours for the Yen or European hours for the Euro, Pound and Swiss.

That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t watch them. On the contrary- they are liquid futures markets, and the nearly around the clock trading means that trade opportunities can come any time you’re watching them and stop losses work overnight as well. This reduces the risk of a market gapping through your stop and causing larger than expected losses.

STOP ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE STOP PRICE BECAUSE STOP ORDERS, IF THE PRICE IS HIT, BECOME MARKET ORDERS AND, DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS, THE ACTUAL FILL PRICE CAN BE DIFFERENT FROM THE STOP PRICE. IF A MARKET REACHED ITS DAILY PRICE FLUCTUATION LIMIT, A "LIMIT MOVE", IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE A STOP LOSS ORDER.


For me, using the Taylor Trading Technique means that an around the clock trading markets like the currencies can require some flexibility and broader thinking to find entries. I find continuation or reversal entries to be good setups to look for.

The September Euro futures had a Taylor Trading Technique Buy day signal for today. Tuesday was a Sell day (or a breakout setup) that gave a Sell Short day move yesterday. Yesterday’s selloff left a close just above Monday’s (this week’s) low.

Yesterday’s selloff meant we anticipated a TTT Buy day today. On a Buy day we look for an initial move below the previous session’s low, to shake out the weak longs and suck in short sellers at the bottom. The initial selloff dries up and a rally begins (the day’s primary direction). We then anticipate that the market will continue to trend higher through the session, ending with a close near the session high.

The issue with buying the Euro today is that the last time it was around yesterday’s low was about 5 AM CT. At that hour my eyes were barely open and I hadn’t had enough coffee to think about trading.

By 7 AM I was in the office, and it was about 20 points above yesterday’s low. There were economic numbers coming out at 7:30, so I thought I would look to enter on a continuation of the rally.

This seems to be my job a lot of the time-to find price levels that I think will mark a resumption of the prevailing trend, so I can enter a trade when I have confirmation of the resumption. In this case I was going to watch 1.2324, a 50 percent retracement of the selloff from Tuesday’s weekly high to last night’s low. I view these 50% retracement levels as a good place to see if a move is a correction or likely to continue on.

The Euro broke above the 1.2324 level shortly after 7:30, reaching 1.2344 in about an hour. It sold off to retest the 1.2324 level before rallying again. The second rally traded through yesterday’s high and then tested trend line resistance (see the daily chart) at 1.2367. If it could hold above there, the next objective would be 1.2390, a full retracement of the selloff.

© Scott Hoffman

STOP ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE STOP PRICE BECAUSE STOP ORDERS, IF THE PRICE IS HIT, BECOME MARKET ORDERS AND, DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS, THE ACTUAL FILL PRICE CAN BE DIFFERENT FROM THE STOP PRICE. IF A MARKET REACHED ITS DAILY PRICE FLUCTUATION LIMIT, A "LIMIT MOVE", IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE A STOP LOSS ORDER.

Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Currencies & Interest Rates

About Scott Hoffman

Scott graduated from the University of Chicago in 1986 with a degree in Economics. After graduation, Scott worked on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange then moved upstairs, serving as the personal broker to a former chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade. There, he worked as a broker and margin manager, starting up the firm’s full service brokerage division.

Today, Scott serves as an educator and mentor for new traders, and as a trading partner and ally for experienced traders. The breadth and depth of Scott’s knowledge make him the “go to guy” for both retail and institutional traders.

Scott also publishes two futures advisories, Swing Trader’s Insight and Trade or Fade. He also writes the futures trading blog at www.futuresinsightblog.com. Scott has written articles for a number of futures publications and has done numerous futures trading seminars, including seminars for both the CBOT and CME.

Scott offers his customers the knowledge he has gained from his more than 25 years of experience in the futures business. Scott is accepting new clients at this time.

Scott lives in suburban Chicago with his wife and three children. In his free time he enjoys coaching his children’s sports and various other athletic activities.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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