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Home / Futures Blog / Traders weigh in on cocoa futures’ prospects

Traders weigh in on cocoa futures’ prospects

May 5, 2011 by Daniels Trading

This crop year will see supplies of cocoa outpace demand by 200,000 metric tons, according to the trading arm of London-based Armajaro Holdings.

Bloomberg reports the cocoa trading head at Armajaro Trading said the smaller of two of the annual harvests in West Africa will generate a supply that is strong enough. The main crop's harvest typically begins in October.

"The mid-crop will be pretty good in West Africa," William Venables told Bloomberg during an interview.

At 11:15 a.m. on Thursday, cocoa futures were down 4.8 percent, a $154 dive to $3,057 per troy ounce.

Rabobank International estimates the deficit for the soft commodity during the 2011-2012 season will total 30,000 tons. But both ABN Amro NV and VM Group stated demand for cocoa will be stronger than demand for the soft commodity by 94,000 tons during that same time period.

The Ivory Coast, one of the world's top producers of cocoa, is presently rebuilding its exporting operation. The industry, which accounts for about one-third of the nation's revenue stream, suffered while serving as a pawn because of the November 2010 disputed presidential election that saw a 10-year incumbent's refusal to cede power to the declared victor until international peacekeepers forced him out about four months later.

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This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Archived News

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Daniels Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm located in the heart of Chicago’s financial district. Established by renowned commodity trader Andy Daniels in 1995, Daniels Trading is built on a culture of trust committed to the firm’s mission of Independence, Objectivity and Reliability.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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