This is a sample entry from Tom Dosdall’s newsletter, Technical Ag Knowledge, published on Monday September 19, 2016.
Markets are moving! Make sure you stay aware of the key technical levels in the markets that affect you and call your Daniels advisor if you need to update any of your positions.
Funds reduced their speculative net short by +30K contracts last week which gives the bulls some wind in the sails to start this week. Trend and momentum are both up, but the market needs to close above the TAS supply level at 343’2 in order to maintain the technically bullish outlook. A close above this level could help to trigger additional buy stops and set the table for a potential rally toward 370’0. We see a good base of demand built in now at 321’0.
Overnight trading brought the soybean price right up against the supply (resistance) level at 983’0 and we are seeing it struggle to break through there early today. Unlike corn, momentum is still down in soybeans so this could be a meaningful near term target price. We also have the 50 day moving average just above this resistance level at 992’0. One more bearish thing to consider is the cross of the 50 day over the 100 day a couple of weeks back. All that said, if wet weather outlooks continue to creep in you could see all of this technical analysis adjusted, especially pending a close above 992’0.
Dec Wheat is out of balance and bullish when trading above 401’0. There is a good base of support built in below there at 391’0 (in my opinion). Previous channel area at 427’0 could be a medium term target. Remember, funds still hold a near record spec short position!
Cotton is trading within a fair value zone (sideways) with 0.06578 demand and 0.6912 supply. The 100 day moving average is short term support at 0.6705. Momentum is mildly bullish so we will look to either be buyers of the dips or breakout of the range.
The rally in the cattle market should not have come as a complete surprise following TAS Navigators warning of bear trend exhaustion last week (purple bar on bottom). We are now approaching several waves of resistance; first at 109.550, then 111.000, and 112.300.
Support in hogs gave out at 58.00 which make me wary of more potential downside. The market will remain out of balance/bearish as long as it is below 59.500.
The uptrend in the Dollar is supported at 94.814 and again at 94.241 (basis the daily close). We favor a sideways to potentially lower USD in the week ahead with overhead resistance in the 96.000 area (200 day moving average).
Crude is resting on a double bottom support level Monday morning (Sept 1), but the technicals favor a bearish outlook with resistance at 44.85. Eventual bear target could be 41.20.
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