This is a sample entry from Tom Dosdall’s newsletter, Technical Ag Knowledge, published on Monday August 01, 2016.
**Commitment of Traders (futures only as of July 26) CORN -67,571; SOYBEANS +109,696; SRW WHEAT -131,142**
The bear trend could be getting exhausted as a good base of support is now established at 336’2. Short term rallies could be challenged by sellers in the supply zone at 348’4. A close above that level tilts the scales in favor of the bulls and opens the door for a potential run toward 370’0. Bias: Mildly Bullish.
There is a chance soybeans have carved out a near term low in the 955’4-963’0 area and we are looking for a technical bounce as this week plays itself out. The 200 day simple moving average at 955’4 held last week and the market posted a double bottom low of 963’0 Monday/Tuesday last week. This is traditionally a potential reversal chart pattern. Should these levels hold again, upside objectives for the bulls could be 1022’0-1035’0. Should we see a close below 955’4, the market could be subject to additional liquidation. Next support level down from there is 920’0.
Another fresh record net short position in managed money last Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report (-131,142) doesn’t seem to be spooking the bears yet. This market desperately needs to see a close above 412’0 on Monday, in my opinion, in order to avoid halt the slow grind lower. There is no noticeable support on the monthly wheat chart between 412’0 and 295’0 (August/Dec, 2005).
The Dec Cotton chart has some interesting things setting up and should probably have producers thinking about hedges or sales at these levels, depending on % marketed so far. We have a resistance line well defined at 0.7500 and momentum on TAS Navigator hooking over bearish. There is also the potential for a fast moving bear market through the volume at price zone (0.7120 down to 0.6690). Should we see a close above 0.7500, these bear notes would be cancelled and trend could continue up (major monthly resistance 0.9500). Bias: Bearish below 0.7500.
Last week’s rally hits bear trend line resistance as well as the 50 day moving average and stalled out. I am looking for the 113.200 level to remain challenging again for the bulls here to start the week. A close above this line would be viewed as technically bullish. Short term bear objective could be the TAS demand zone at 107.425.
The rout continues in hogs continues as the collapse in pork cutout values and a weak demand picture on the cash market continues to pressure. The market is technically oversold and could be trying to find a near term bottom soon. The potential for a sharp rally to 62.400 cannot be ruled out early this week if lows are able to hold. The continuous front month chart shows next level of support near 57.075.
The Dollar was hammered on Friday after a weaker than expected GDP number but should potentially still find some support this week near the moving averages. We noted on Friday the support found at 38% retracement between April low and July high. The 50% level would be the next level down at 94.750. Longer term picture, the bias still remains up.
A big headwind for commodities as a whole continues to be the weakness in crude oil. The trend remains down with no signs of exhaustion yet. Look for 39.00 to provide short term support this week.
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