Momentum Trader Update

Energy Commodity Futures Markets

Crude Oil Futures

The strong up trend in December Crude Oil has lost some steam this week. Notice the recent high (highlighted) was not accompanied by a new high in the Momentum indicator. The market is correcting down and key support is near 48.00 with the trend average (green line) and the 50% retracement of the September/October rally. If Crude starts closing below this level, it would turn the trend down. Wait for this correction to play out and for the up trend to resume before taking a long position.Crude Oil Futures Quotes + Charts

Crude Oil Futures Chart

Heating Oil Futures

The December Heating Oil is correcting down after putting in a double top on declining Momentum. It has broken below an uptrend line and is headed for support at 1.4400, 1.4000, and 1.3600. 1.3600 is key, as it represents a 50 % retracement of the September/October rally and would coincide with the trend average. Heating Oil Futures Quotes + Charts

Unleaded Gasoline Futures

The Momentum indicator has turned negative. If price follows through and closes below the trend average, go short December Unleaded with a buy stop above 1.3200. Unleaded Gasoline Futures Quotes + Charts

Metal Commodity Futures Markets

Gold Futures

December Gold remains in a strong up trend and has moved up to resistance around the previous peaks near 435. Support is at 422 and 415. Buy long if support holds and the up trend resumes. Look for Gold to break out above recent highs and make its way to an objective of 450. Gold Futures Quotes + Charts

Gold Futures Chart

Silver Futures

The recent high in December Silver was followed by weak close. Last week's low near 7.00 is key. As long as the market stays above this level, odds favor another push to new highs for this move into the 8.00 area. If the market fails, expect a quick return to the trend average near 6.80. Silver Futures Quotes + Charts

Copper Futures

After the wash out from the highs, December Copper has been consolidating in a range with resistance at the trend average around 131.50 and support at the Fibonacci (61.8%) retracement near 125.00. The Momentum indicator has turned negative, so look for the down move to continue. A downside objective of 109.00 is possible if the trend develops. Copper Futures Quotes + Charts

Currency Futures Markets

Eurocurrency Futures

An up trend in the December Eurocurrency finally developed after the upside breakout at the end of September. The initial objective (A), which coincided with the previous high at 1.2780, has been met. After a correction, look for the Euro to make new highs with an objective of 1.3300. Support is at 1.2620, 1.2520, and 1.2420 is key. Eurocurrency Futures Quotes + Charts

Eurocurrency Futures Chart

Japanese Yen Futures

After breaking out above the trend average, a nice up move has developed in the December Yen. The objective of .9550 remains just above the market. Continue to trail stops below the low average to protect profits. Japanese Yen Futures Quotes + Charts

British Pound Futures

The December Pound has rallied to meet resistance drawn off the contract highs. Continue to buy if support holds and the up trend resumes. A breakout above 1.8400 would point to an objective of 1.9700, which coincides with the '91 and '92 peaks of 1.9800-2.0000. British Pound Futures Quotes + Charts

Canadian Dollar Futures

The strong up trend in the December Canadian has continued. The .8150 objective has been met and there appears to be some resistance near .8200. After a correction, look to buy the December Canadian Dollar with a longer-term objective of .8700. Candaian Dollar Futures Quotes + Charts

Interest Rate Futures Markets

Treasury Bond Futures

December Bonds continue to work higher in an up trending channel. The recent rally was technically weaker than previous moves, with declining Momentum and finding resistance mid channel. Also note the resistance at the previous short term up trend line. Key support near 112-00 must hold to see the up trend continue. The Momentum indicator, breaking its downtrend (A) and returning to positive territory, suggests this will be the case. Buy long if the low remains above 113-00 and use a sell stop under 112-00. Treasury Bond Futures Quotes + Charts

Treasury Bond Futures Chart

Ten-Year Note Futures

The December Note is trading in a similar pattern to the Bonds. 112-20 is the key here. Buy above 113-00 with a stop loss below that level. Ten-Year Note Futures Quotes + Charts

Five-Year Note Futures

The December 5yr has found support at the trend average and Momentum is turning up also. Buy as the up trend resumes and have a stop loss below 110-24. Five-Year Note Futures Quotes + Charts

Eurodollar Futures

The March Eurodollar has been trading around the trend average over the last several weeks. Currently prices are below the trend average but the Momentum indicator is positive. This is a very neutral situation. Eurodollar Futures Quotes + Charts

Grain Commodity Futures Markets

Wheat Futures

After a key reversal (highlighted) the December Wheat corrected up to meet resistance at the trend average and previous trend lines. The trend turns up with a close above the average and Momentum turning positive. Keep a sell stop below the low average and see if a new trend develops. The initial objective (A) is 346. Wheat Futures Quotes + Charts

Wheat Futures Chart

Corn Futures

While the trend has been down, Corn has been trading in a narrow range. Momentum has moved up to the unchanged area, which often means a breakout is near. This flat correction favors the downside. Continue to be short December Corn with an objective of 1.80. Corn Futures Quotes + Charts

Soybean Futures

The market has corrected up to key resistance at 550. The Momentum indicator is flat near the unchanged level, which is often the case before a breakout. Support is at 528 and 515. The downside objective would be 490. Sell January Soybeans at the close if the high is less than 543. Soybean Futures Quotes + Charts

Livestock Commodity Futures Markets

Live Cattle Futures

December Cattle have broken out to the downside after trading around the trend average over the past six weeks. Friday's close below 86.00 completes a chart pattern that projects to just below 81.00 (A). Continue to work a buy stop above the high average to protect a break-even position. If Cattle move lower next week move the stop down to protect profits. Live Cattle Futures Quotes + Charts

Live Cattle Futures Chart

Feeder Cattle Futures

The trend in Feeders has turned down below the trend average and Momentum has turned negative as well. Sell January Feeder Cattle below 106.50 and risk it to above 108.00. Feeder Cattle Futures Quotes + Charts

Lean Hog Futures

December Hogs have corrected down and are trading around the trend average. Momentum remains negative. Sell a close below the trend average and place a buy stop above 67.50. A breakout below 64.50 would point to an objective of 57.00. Lean Hog Futures Quotes + Charts

New York Soft Commodity Futures Markets

Sugar Futures

March Sugar failed to meet the 9.50 objective (A) from the September breakout. Now the trend has turned down, closing below the trend line and average (3). The near term objective is support at the trend line near 825 (highlighted). Sugar Futures Quotes + Charts

Sugar Futures Chart

Coffee Futures

December Coffee has been trading both sides of the trend average recently. With Momentum in negative territory, look for the market to move away from the average and sell as a downtrend develops. Coffee Futures Quotes + Charts

Cocoa Futures

December Cocoa has been trading in a shallow down trend and Momentum has been very flat. Recently Momentum has turned positive and the market has corrected up to the trend average. Look for the market to break out from here one way or the other. Buy if it closes above 1510 and sell if below 1440. Cocoa Futures Quotes + Charts

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS AN INHERENT RISK OF LOSS ASSOCIATED WITH OPTION CONTRACTS. OPTIONS TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. OPTIONS CAN AND DO EXPIRE WORTHLESS. IF YOU PURCHASE A COMMODITY OPTION, YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE PREMIMUM AND OF ALL TRANSACTION COSTS.