On Thursday, June 30th at 11AM the USDA will release their Planted Acreage and June 1 Stocks reports. John Payne and I recorded our weekly Inside Commodity Futures podcast today and reviewed the reports. You may listed to our analysis here: http://www.danielstrading.com/news/grain-futures/2016/06/28/inside-commodity-futures-usda-june-30th-report-preview
At the end of this wire you will find the industry estimates for the USDA report on Thursday. They are in-line with what we are expecting. If there are any surprises I think these are the possibilities
- 84mm+ Soybean acres (bearish surprise possibility)
- 93mm +Corn acres (bearish surprise possibility)
- 800mm or less June 1 Stocks for Soybeans (bullish surprise possibility)
- 4.60 bill corn stocks or higher (bearish surprise)
- 0.960 or lower wheat stocks (bullish surprise)
I think we could see more acres come out of Prevent Plant and that is why I think the corn and/or soybean acres have a change to be a bearish surprise. In other words – possibility of higher acres than estimated.
Soybean exports and the crush have been strong. I would not be surprised to see lower stocks than estimated.
I have been hearing reports of feed wheat favored over corn in areas where lower protein HRW wheat is grown. If this is widespread then we could see corn stocks higher and wheat stocks lower due to the feed usage (more wheat for feed and less corn used for feed).
Those are my best guesses of the report on Thursday. As always, one never knows what the USDA will release so make sure you manage risk when heading into a major report like we will have on Thursday
USDA June 30th Acreage and Stocks Estimates
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