This is a sample entry from John Payne’s newsletter, This Week in Grain, published on Friday May 27, 2016.
A Memorial Day picnic will bring about many a conversation about corn prices as folks chow down on burgers, brats and a few special beverages. These arguments can be very boring if you are out of the loop. I’ve taken the time at 2 pm on this Friday afternoon before Memorial Day to give you some talking points at the picnic table so you don’t sound like an idiot.
If you want to be bearish, lean on supply and low wheat prices, these should keep your cousins friend with 300,000 bushels of corn in his bin from getting too excited.
- Stocks and stocks/use levels at 4 year highs.
- Weak Basis
- Steady but not stellar demand growth
- Low wheat prices
- Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois are going to grow above trend yields (crosses fingers)
- 93 MILLION ACRES
If you want to keep it positive and bullish, use the technical arguments. Stick to the short term though, and remember WEATHER IS YOUR FRIEND.
- Close above the 2 year (ema) moving average for the first time since 2003
- Demand showed strength in the last WASDE, maybe more hikes to come
- Good article to put up on your phone if available- Brazil corn shortfall ‘could leave exporters in a bind’
- Weather- Have you seen the storms hitting the western corn belt? There’s a hurricane coming for the east coast!
- SOYBEAN MEAL
Visuals help too. Use the top one if bearish and the bottom one if bullish. And HAVE A FANTASTIC MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. Thanks for reading.
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