The Number One Rule of Trading

This article originally appeared in FutureSource’s Fast Break Newsletter, where Craig Turner is a regular contributor on various futures trading topics.

If there is one thing I’ve learned in all my years in the financial markets, it is never add to a losing position.  That means never “average down” a losing long position or “average up” a losing short position.  This is even more important when using leverage.  There is a very well-know saying, “your first loss is your best loss.”  What this means is you are best served taking a small loss before it becomes a larger loss, or even worse, a loss that eats up a majority of your trading capital.  In order to avoid this major trading mistake, we must first understand why traders add to losers, why traders should not do this, and what they can do to stop it from happening.

Why Traders Add To Losing Positions

Traders stay in losing positions for only two reasons.  Either they don’t want to be wrong about the market or they don’t want to lose money on the trade.  Sometimes it is a combination of both.  Regardless of which one it is, it causes traders to stay in positions that are going against them.

As traders are losing money, they figure that if they add to the losing position, they can bring the average cost of the position down.  For example, let’s say a trader wants to be short Crude Oil and he sells 1 contact of Crude Oil at $75.00.  Crude is now trading at $80, and the trader is down $5 in crude ($5000).  The trader then decides to sell short an additional 2nd crude oil contact at $80.  The average short position is $77.50 (the average of $80 and $75).

The trader now only needs Crude Oil to go $2.50 in his favor to get to breakeven at $77.50, instead of $75.00.  However, every tick Crude Oil goes against the trader past $80.00 a barrel is going to count twice a much, eating up available capital a double the rate.  To make matters worse, markets that are trending in one direction, tend to continue to trend in that direction.

Why Traders Should Not Add To a Losing Position

When a trader is in a losing position, the market is telling him he is wrong.  The market is the total sum of psychological, technical and fundamental knowledge.  The market is the total sum of all investor knowledge and market opinions.  It includes institutional money, sovereign wealth funds, hedge fund managers, trend following funds, commercial hedging interest, and every other participant, large and small.

If a trader continues to hold onto a losing position after the market says he is wrong, the trader is basically saying he is right, and the collective sum or the rest of the market is wrong.  In other words, the global consensus is telling the trader the world is round while the trader insists the world is flat.  This will almost always lead to larger losses.  Bullish markets tend to trade higher, and bearish markets tend to trade lower.  It takes something significantly fundamental or technical to occur in that market to change the trend.

Not only is the trader wrong shorting Crude at $75, he is twice as wrong shorting the market again at $80.  The losses are now piling up exponentially if he continues to add on to a losing position.  Plus, he has now doubled his leverage on a bad trade.  Meanwhile, if the trader had just had a $1 or $2 stop on the crude oil position, he would have taken his loss and been done with the trade.  He would have been able to admit he was wrong and move onto the next opportunity, instead of creating larger losses and letting other opportunities go by while he was in a losing trade.

Wait Just A Second, I Have “Averaged Down” and Made Money!

If you have averaged down losing positions before, chances are it may have worked in your favor.  The problem is, the one time it does not work in your favor you will blow out your account.  Every time you “average down” and succeed you are cheating trading death.  It is almost like a game of Russian roulette.  It only ends once, and when it does, it’s over.

“Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent” – John Maynard Keynes

When it comes to leveraged trading, there have never been truer words said.  Traders who want to hold onto losing positions “until they come back” to the price they entered may never see it happen.  A trader who has a $10K acct short 1 crude at $75.00, only has $10 of room before the account is drawn down to zero.  Most people think they will never let a position go against them that far, but it does happen, and there is no assurance that the market will come back to $75 before it gets to $85, causing the trader to liquidate the position for a very large loss.

THE SOLUTION

The simple solution is to never add to a losing position.  However, as an experienced broker, analyst, trading newsletter publisher and individual trader, I know that is easier said then done.  Here are a few rules to live by in order to help you stop adding to losing positions.

Place Stops Just Outside Normal Trading Ranges

When entering a position, traders need to give their positions enough room to work in their favor, but they also must have stops if the market moves decidedly against them.  For a swing or position trader, this means having stops just outside the most recent trading ranges.  It could be the previous day’s low/high, the past week, or right outside the natural support and resistance lines for the markets.  Traders need to define this risk parameter BEFORE they enter the trade.  Traders need to know what the risk is and make sure they are comfortable with the risk if they are wrong about the direction of the market.

Mental Clarity Can Only Be Achieved After the Losing Position Is Exited

When a trader is in a losing position and the market keeps on going against them, it is very difficult to approach the situation with a level head and clear mind.  The fear of losing money can be the greatest factor in the psychology of trading.  It causes traders to see things irrationally, as they do everything possible not to take a loss.  This leads to poor decision-making and bad judgment.  This is why it is so important to define the stop loss parameters before you enter the market and stick with it.

Unfortunately, sometimes traders get into a trade without a stop or let the position run too far against them.  If possible, try to imagine you are flat instead of in the position.  Then ask yourself, if you were flat, would you get back into the position? If not, you need to get out, and get out fast.  If the trader can’t honestly say what he would do, or can’t detach from the situation, the best thing to do is exit.  Getting out of a loser relieves stress and allows the trader to approach things with a level head.  Once the trader is out of the position, he can always get back in if he feels it is the right move.  Some traders don’t like this method because they don’t want to spend the extra commission for getting out and getting back in.  However, the clarity that is gained from exiting a losing position is invaluable compared to the extra transaction costs.  Don’t worry about a few dollars when thousands are at stake.

You Must Be Able to Admit When You Are Wrong and Take a Loss

Being able to admit you are wrong and take a loss is the first step in the journey of successful trading.  No one is perfect in trading.  Taking a small loss is a minor victory in trading.  Being able to let winning trades run and exiting losers for a small loss is what it is all about.  However, you can’t get to the winners if you take large losses.

It is OK to be wrong.  Actually, it is great to be wrong.  Why? Because if you can’t be wrong, you’ll never be right about the markets.  Trading is about taking risk and managing risk.  The trader who can exit a position going against him early is giving himself the change to win big on the next opportunity.

The Best Traders Add to Winning Positions & Use Stops to Protect Profits

The most successful traders I’ve seen not only cut their losers quickly, but they let their winners run and add on as they go in their favor.  They never average down losers, but they will certainly average up on winners.  While some might not want to trade multiple lots, I think the concept is very important.  When you have a winning position, the market is telling you that you are correct.  The collective sum of all knowledge in the market place is in total agreement with you.  This is the perfect time to add on another lot if you have the available capital without over-leveraging your account.

Some traders don’t want to add on at higher prices because it adversely affects their dollar cost average.  However, what traders need to realize is that markets trading higher tend to trend higher, and the opposite is true for bear markets.  If you find yourself in a great winning trade, and you see no reason why it should stop, that is a great time to add on.  When it comes to trading, you want to buy high and sell higher, or sell low and buy lower.  We are not in the business of picking bottoms and tops.  It is a one-way ticket to trading failure.

Successful traders also use stops.  As the market moves in their favor, they move their stop up to where they feel is below a reasonable support level.  They are comfortable with the losses or profits they will take if they get stopped out.  They let the market tell them if they are right or wrong and they accept the market’s decision!

Find a Broker Who Can Help You When You Need It Most

If you are having difficulty with adding to losing positions, you need to talk to your broker about it.  Regardless if you are a self-directed online trader or broker-assisted, you need to have a talk with your broker.  If you don’t have access to a broker with your current trading arrangement, consider finding a firm that will allow you to access to one regardless of whether you are a self-directed online trader or broker-assisted trader.

As a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, I can honestly tell you from first hand experience how important it is to be able to work through these situations with someone who has an interest in the success of your trading.  Sometimes we are able to offer valuable advice about not adding to losing positions.  Sometimes it just helps for the trader to talk about the trade the same way a person tells their psychologist their problems.  In the end, it is the trader who works out what needs to be done just by communicating the situation aloud to another human being.  Either way, having a trained professional in the weeds next to you during battle can make a huge difference in your most difficult trading periods, and help you make sure you never return to that place again.

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The Psychology of Futures Trading: 3 Things You Need To Know

This article originally appeared in FutureSource’s Fast Break Newsletter, where Craig Turner is a regular contributor on various futures trading topics.

For many traders, the Psychology of Trading can be the greatest hurdle they need to overcome in order to be successful.  At Daniels Trading, one of our primary goals is to help self-directed online and broker assisted traders overcome this common issue, and get them on their way to achieving the results they are looking for.  While there are many factors that go into the Psychology of Trading, we feel these three are the most common and important to trading success.

1. Losing open positions are losing real money.

Some traders convince themselves their position is not a loss until they liquidate.  Unfortunately, in a mark to market world, a losing position needs to be treated as a loss in the traders mind.  Traders often hold onto a position far longer than they should because they think the market will come back.  They think they are not actually losing money until they get out.  However, the market does not have to come back to the original price.

Another common event is the market goes against traders to the degree that they get out of their trades because they have reached their threshold of market pain, before the market does come back to their entry.  Does that mean you have to get out of a position because it is going against you? No, but you need to confront that fact that the market has not gone in your direction.

How can traders avoid this problem?

All traders should evaluate all of their positions at the end of the day or first thing in the morning.  We look at all of our losing positions and we pretend we are flat.  We then ask ourselves, if we were not in this position, would we get in now at this price based on what the market is telling us.  We will evaluate the market from Technical and Fundamental aspects, and we will even play “Devil’s Advocate” on why not to get in.  If the final answer is “no”, we exit our losing position.  If the final answer is “yes”, we stick with the position and review it again in 24 hours.

Why does this work?

This process works because it helps traders to emotionally detach from their open positions.  Traders stay in positions too long because they are too emotionally invested in the trades.  Any trader who is too emotionally invested will not be able to evaluate the markets and his account properly.  In order to emotionally detach, you have to look at the market as if you are not in the position at all.  Once you clear your head and look at the market as you don’t have a position, you will be able to evaluate it honestly and effectively.

This process also works because the trader is checking the status of the trade at least once a day.  This makes sure the trade does not get away from the trader.  You can’t just stick your head in the sand and hope the position comes back.  Hope is not part of the equation.  This process forces the trader to confront the current market conditions.

2. Open, positive trades are not profitable until the trade is closed.

Some might say this is contradictory to the first rule.  It is and it needs to be.  Too many traders think that losses don’t count until they liquidate, and they count “their winnings” before they exit a trade.  I’ve talked to traders that said they “gave back profits” because they did not get out in time.  The fact is, they did not “give back” anything.  There are no profits until you exit.

Why the difference in thinking and attitude towards winners and losers?

If traders can accept that winners are not profits until they liquidate, they are more likely to take profits and not let the position turn against them.  If traders can accept that a losing trade is losing real money now, they are more likely to get out of a bad trade and preserve trading capital.  There are two sayings in trading that relate to this.  The first is “your first loss is your best loss”.  The second is “no one ever went broke taking a profit”.  Those two sayings relate directly to the Psychology of Trading.

How should traders get in the habit of taking profits?

Traders need to have a stop in place and trail it manually from day to day at the very least.  Some will also use a limit order for a profit target.  I prefer moving the stop each day to lock in profits on a profitable trade.  If you are up 30 cents on corn, and you put your stop 10 cents below the last trade, you know you are locking in 20 cents or $1000.  The most important thing is not exactly how you manage your profit targets, but that you actually have a plan in place with orders in the market.

We also evaluate winning positions every day, just like we do with losing positions.  We ask ourselves two things.  The first is, if this trade went against us starting tomorrow, how much would we want to profit and still feel good about the trade.  That price becomes our stop loss.  The second thing we do is say, “if we were not in this market now, would we get in at this level?” If the answer is “yes”, we might think about adding on a position.  If the answer is “no” we make sure we have that stop in place to take profits in case the market turns against us.

3. Understanding Leverage is Key to Trading Success.

Leverage can change how traders normally approach the markets.  They see the leverage and how much it can work for them positively but never fully explore the downside.  Using leverage properly can turn good trades into great trades, but trading with leverage makes risk management even more important.  Leverage plays a direct role in Greed and Fear, which are two of the strongest elements in the Psychology of Trading.  Using leverage appropriately will reduce the roll Greed and Fear play in your trading.  Here are two rules to live by concerning Leverage:

Margin is not a Guideline for Leverage

Actually, margin is the level that tells traders they are overleveraged and in risk of blowing out their accounts.  If you constantly find yourself on Margin Call or trading right at the margin levels, the powers of Greed and Fear will eventually overtake your trading.  Constantly living on the edge takes it toll, as any trader who has been overleveraged for an extended period of time will tell you.

Know your Account Leverage Ratio

Account Leverage Ratio is the Total Contract Values divided by the Net Liquidity in your account.  Let’s say you have a $10,000 account and long Gold from $1300/oz.  Gold is a 100oz contact, so the total contract value is 100oz X $1300/oz = $130,000.  Take the total contract value ($130,000) and divide it by your net liquidity ($10,000).  $130,000/$10,000 is 13:1.

Your $10K acct long 1 contract of gold is leveraged 13:1.  Even more importantly, if Gold declines by $50 to $1250, that is a $5000 move.  Your account is now at $5000 ($10,000 – $5000) and the total contract value is $125,000.  Your account leverage ratio is now $125,000 / $5000 = 25:1.  A less than 5% move in gold has resulted in a doubling your account leverage.  Traders need to know how much a market can reasonably move against them or in their favor, and how that changes the leverage they are using.

If gold trades trade up $50 from $1300 to $1350, the trader will have $15,000 in their account for a $135,000 contract.  The account is now only leveraged 9:1.  A less than 5% move in Gold has reduced the leverage ratio significantly.

While there is no magic number for how leveraged your account is, you should always be aware of the leverage you are using.  Conservative traders should try to keep the leverage between 5:1 to 10:1.  Aggressive traders should try not to get beyond 20:1 as a general rule.  Once you get to 25:1 or greater, the account will be heavily leveraged and at serious risk of blowing out on any significant market move.  Understanding the leverage will help traders make better decisions when entering and exiting trades.

Putting It all together

Traders who can limit losses, take profits and understand leverage, greatly improve their chances of success.  These aspects of trading are more mental than people realize.  If you can attack these common issues with the understanding they are rooted in the Psychology of Trading, you will be better armed to trade the markets more effectively and with better control of the leverage you are using.

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