dt Futures Blog

Gold futures set to mark weekly gains

Speculation that the central bank of the U.S. will not soon taper off its economy-spurring asset purchases prompted gold futures to barrel toward their strongest weekly performance in more than four weeks on Friday, according to Reuters.

The yellowish metal also climbed this week after equities slipped. But most beneficial to bullion were happenings with the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding the world's largest economy. The precious metal and the U.S. dollar typically perform the inverse of one-another.

Chairman Ben Bernanke with the U.S. Federal Reserve told a U.S. Congressional committee on Wednesday that the Fed might consider reducing the economic stimulus measures. But President James Bullard with the St. Louis Federal Reserve said on Friday the he will not cast a vote to support that type of reduction until inflation in the U.S. rises.

"This week presented something for everyone," vice president Ole Hansen with Saxo Bank told Reuters on Friday. "The bears have not seen any evidence of them being wrong, while the bulls got a bit of safe haven and on balance a rather dovish Bernanke."

At 11:33 a.m. on Friday, gold futures dropped 0.2 percent, a $2.82 loss to $1,388.23 per troy ounce.

Slight losses come after strong session
MarketWatch reports the slight losses that the yellowish metal endured on Friday came one day after it touched its top value in one week one day prior.

"From a technical perspective; we think the price has made a double bottom as the price held its yearly lows," chief market economist Peter Cardillo with Rockwell Capital Markets told MarketWatch on Friday. "On the other hand, the longer-term picture remains bright as the fundamentals have not changed. We see a short-term move to $1,425."

The U.S. is spearheading the globe's recovery from the Great Recession and economic data released on Friday indicated an uplifting nature.

Manufacturers in the U.S. released data noting orders for durable goods increased 3.3 percent last month, more than doubling projections of gains of 1.4 percent. The increase was linked with sharper demand for cars, airplanes and military equipment.

The U.S. dollar was tepid during trading on Friday, but that apparently had minimal bearing on the price of gold.

Bullishness abounds
Bloomberg reports sentiment for gold is climbing in the aftermath of the Bernanke testimony.

As a consequence of the Fed chief noting record monetary stimulus will continue, 12 Bloomberg-polled analysts forecast the price of gold futures to increase next week. Nine analysts were bearish and eight analysts remained even.

The poll revealed the highest proportion of analysts with views of gold rising since the end of last month.

"Gold should still be in demand as an alternative currency," commodities analyst Daniel Briesemann with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt told the news source on Friday. "The quantitative easing by central banks should lead to a depreciation in rates for major currencies and in the end should also lead to some inflation concerns, although this is not an issue at the moment. As long as institutional investors are selling gold ETP holdings, this will probably outweigh robust retail demand."

Despite a stronger performance this week, gold futures are down roughly 17 percent thus far this year. Speculation is mounting that gold futures will not mark a 13th consecutive year of gains.

Yet one commodity analyst noted that other tradables on the commodity complex also are facing rough times ahead.

"Our main view has been for a trough in commodities in the second quarter, with higher values towards year-end," chief commodity analyst Bjarne Schieldrop with SEB AB told Bloomberg on Friday. The "expectation is for monetary stimulus to continue through 2013. A U.S. recovery is positive, the question is the time lag before impacting commodities."

Cocoa futures slip after strong rain in West African nations

Conjecture about crops in the top grower benefiting from strong rainfall last week pulled cocoa futures to their lowest value in seven days on Friday, Bloomberg reports.

The soft commodity's growing regions in West Africa, like Ivory Coast, saw heavy rainfall, MDA Weather Services in Maryland stated in a report earlier this week. Ivory Coast presently is harvesting the smaller of two yearly crops, which is known as the mid-crop. The follow-up production typically benefits from rain that nourishes the crops at this time. The Daloa region of Ivory Coast, located in the central-western region, took on 40.3 millimeters of rain from May 11 through May 20, which trumps the typical amount of 39 millimeters.

"More rain in the Ivory Coast was seen as beneficial for the mid-crop there," states a report penned by futures specialist Arthur Liming with Citigroup Inc. in Chicago, according to Bloomberg.

At 11:07 a.m. on Friday, cocoa futures fell 1.31 percent, a $30 loss to $2,253 per metric ton.

Reuters reports Cargill announced earlier this month that it is well into the construction of a facility for processing cocoa in Indonesia, noting that demand for chocolate and additional products is growing.

Euro benefits from strong economic data released by Germany

The common currency of the European Union climbed on Friday against the U.S. dollar after the emergence of strong economic data from Germany, the strongest economy in the 17-nation bloc, Bloomberg reports.

Next month is forecast to see strong consumer sentiment in Germany, elongating the largest weekly advance for the euro against the world's reserve currency since early last month. German institute Ifo released surprisingly strong data noting its business climate index advanced more than anticipated this month, checking in at 105.7 after registering at 104.4 last month. Bloomberg-polled economists projected the index would not change.

Bundesbank, the central bank of Germany, said the national economy will continue gaining steam this quarter, which ends next month. Exports advanced and factory orders pushed ahead in March, the central bank said.

The consumer-sentiment index orchestrated by GfK AG forecast returns of 6.5 in June after registering at 6.2 this month. The forecast would be the highest level since returns in September 2007.

This month's Ifo index was projected to check in at 104.5, according to economists surveyed by Reuters.

Canadian dollar benefits from Fed chief testimony

The monetary unit of Canada climbed against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, advancing from near its lowest level in one year amid conjecture that the central bank of the U.S. will continue monetary stimulus policies longer than expected, according to Bloomberg.

The Canadian dollar's gained while crude oil futures lost, an unusual occurrence given the energy commodity is the lead export of the nation whose economy is based on trade and commerce of its natural resources.

"It's walking on a razor's edge right now. It's 24 hours of fright, after three months of exuberance," currency analyst Adam Button with ForexLive in Montreal told Reuters on Thursday. "It could prove to be a turning point, or a blip. At this point, I lean more towards a turning point, and continued Canadian dollar weakness."

Applicants for unemployment benefits in Canada fell by more than 5,200, noting a slip of at least 8 percent since the same period in 2012, data released by the nation's government states.

Since earlier this month, the Canadian dollar has lost nearly four-cents-worth against the world's reserve currency, according to Reuters.

Crude oil futures slide after weak Chinese data

Manufacturing slippage in the world's second-largest consumer tugged down Brent crude oil futures on Thursday as the energy commodity marked a third-straight trading session of losses, Bloomberg reports.

The Purchasing Managers Index in China fell to 49.6 this month, representing the lowest level since October of last year. Also impacting the performance of the energy commodity on Thursday was the Wednesday testimony of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke who told congress that the institution he leads is considering a reduction of the economy-spurring monetary stimulus program.

"The China statistics paint a slightly weaker picture of the demand side," chief commodity analyst Bjarne Schieldrop with SEB AB in Oslo told the news source on Thursday. "We are in the seasonally softest part of the year for demand."

At 10:27 a.m. on Thursday, Brent crude oil futures fell 1.19 percent, a $1.22 loss to $101.38 per barrel. At 10:26 a.m., West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures slipped 1.21 percent, a $1.14 loss to $93.14 per barrel.

Dow Jones Newswires reports the factory production slippage in the Asian nation dropped to its lowest level in seven months.

Rand marks 11 days of losses

The South African rand on Thursday notched an 11th consecutive trading session of losses, marking its longest bearish trend in a quarter century, Bloomberg reports.

The currency of the largest economy on the African continent was drawn down by testimony of the chairman of the U.S. central bank who told congress on Wednesday that the economy-spurring monetary easing measures ultimately will close. The rand has distinguished itself as the worst-performing of emerging market monetary units that the news services tracks and it is trading at its lowest rate since the end of the first quarter of 2009.

U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke told congress on Wednesday that monetary stimulus will continue in the near-term to benefit the recovery of the globe's largest economy.

The South African Reserve Bank is forecast to keep its repo rate at 5 percent after it adjourns its Thursday policy meeting, according to Business Day.

"This should put to rest market hopes of further near-term rate cuts from the SARB," economist Peter Worthington with Absa Capital told Business Day on Thursday.

Yen gains against all top rivals

The Japanese yen on Thursday marked its biggest advance in almost three months against the U.S. dollar, also achieving gains of at least 0.5 percent against each of its other 15 major rivals, according to Bloomberg.

Akira Amari, economy minister of the Pacific Rim nation, said the strong performance of the yen is likely to continue as equities continue racking up losses. The yen recovered from sharp losses on Wednesday against the world's reserve currency as it marked gains of at least 1.5 percent.

"What's happened in currency markets is all linked to stocks … Dollar/yen had got to a new high and investors were quick to take profit on long dollar/yen positions," currency strategist Niels Christensen with Nordea in Copenhagen told Reuters on Thursday. "The correction has the potential to go further … But there is no risk of a dramatic fall and any move below 100 should be brief."

The yen pushed to its top value in two weeks against the greenback and the common currency of the European Union.

Equities' continued losses are likely to benefit the yen, Reuters reports analysts said.

Coffee futures drop as Brazilian supplies grow

Speculation about strong supplies dragged down coffee futures on Wednesday as the soft commodity plunged to its lowest value in more than 36 months, according to Bloomberg.

Exports from Brazil, the globe's top shipper, are forecast to increase 5.9 percent while farmers contend with the unsold supplies they have from the record crop, according to an advocacy for Brazilian exporters of coffee in Sao Paulo. Arabica coffee futures have lost roughly 25 percent of their value during the past year.

"This is a situation of abundance," president Christian Wolthers with importer Wolthers America in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, told the news source on Wednesday. "There are no frost threats coming over the coffee belt in Brazil, and the recent dry weather may actually result in more cherries per tree."

At 12:31 p.m. on Wednesday, coffee futures fell 1.77 percent, a 0.0235-cent loss to $1.3035 per pound.

The Wall Street Journal reports CeCafe, the Council of Brazilian Coffee Exporters, also said on Tuesday that it is demanding better treatment for its coffee beans on the ICE Futures exchange in the U.S.

Crude oil futures slide as Fed chief notes stimulus to continue

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on Wednesday dropped in value as the chief of the central bank of the U.S. said economic stimulus will continue spurring the world's largest economy and the globe's top consumer of the energy commodity, according to published reports.

Supplies of the energy commodity dropped by 338,000 barrels to check in at 394.6 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, a unit of the U.S. Department of Energy.

"A premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but would also carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery and causing inflation to fall further," the Fed chief told Congress on Wednesday in prepared remarks, according to Bloomberg.

At 11:09 a.m. on Wednesday, WTI crude oil futures dropped 1.42 percent, a $1.37 slip to $94.81 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures dove 0.78 percent, an 81-cent dip to $103.10 per barrel.

Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday morning that the labor market of the U.S. has developed but he also said that continued aid via quantitative easing is necessary, The New York Times reports.

Loonie damaged by tepid retail sales data

Weaker-than-anticipated retail sales prompted the Canadian dollar to continue losing value during the Wednesday trade session, Bloomberg reports.

The loonie also was on edge early Wednesday, prior to the testimony of governor Ben Bernanke with the U.S. Federal Reserve, who is scheduled to appear before congress to discuss the outlook for the U.S. economy. Speculation has been mounting that the Fed chief will signal the monetary easing policies of the top trade partner to Canada soon will taper.

"There is concern about the household sector, not least of which is concerns about the housing market and how rapidly that's likely to slow," Group of 10 currency strategy head Adam Cole with Royal Bank of Canada in London told the news source on Wednesday. "If that starts to fall away, then it's a reason to make the currency vulnerable."

Early during the Wednesday trade session the Canadian dollar plunged to its lowest rate since March 7 against its southerly rival.

The tepid economic data about retail sales in Canada does not help cast a strong outlook for the nation hosting the world's 11th-biggest economy, according to Reuters.