The US Dollar Index: A Currency or the Pulse of the Futures Markets?

Created in 1973 after the disbanding of the Bretton Woods system, the US Dollar Index is comprised of the exchange rates of the EuroFX, Canadian Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.  Its highs have taken us to around 160 and the lows about 70.

During these times of record high unemployment, uncertainty in the economy and apprehension of our current administration, the US Dollar Index has maintained a spotlight position in the futures markets.  When the unemployment numbers are high, often foreign investors may cash in US Assets such as stock and/or bonds to transfer the money back into the currency of their country to invest in other assets.

For years, we have enjoyed the inverse relationship between other currencies such as the Euro FX and the US Dollar Index.  In recent times, The US Dollar has particularly been used as a guideline to the moves of the Gold Market.  As of late, the E-Mini S&P 500 and most of the tangible commodities markets will weigh the impact of the US Dollar moves.  US exports will often benefit from a weaker US Dollar and other countries may show their exports reduced for that time frame.  Additionally, the federal government often will increase spending to put more money in circulation, so that jobs become more readily available and earning power goes back into our citizens.

Lately, the Federal Reserve has remarked many times about providing additional stimulus as needed.  While those magic words seem to keep our Stock Indices on higher ground, it essentially equates to printing more money and increasing debt.  What is relevant to today’s emphasis on the US Dollar is the upcoming Election paired with the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting.  This week’s trading shows signs of the uncertainty going into next week with unusual reactions to our usual supply/demand reports and economic data.  We can only ascertain that the jitters may remain going into GDP Friday and the main events of next week.

The US Government has committed to purchasing our interest rate products over the next six months to provide further stimulus.  The US T-Bonds, US Dollar Index and Gold are sometimes regarded as safe-haven products that may trade together during times of severe uncertainty.  The allocations of funds at times can be viewed as they will come out of one instrument and flow into another.

US Dollar Weekly Index Chart

US Dollar Weekly Index Chart

To view a larger version of this image, click here.

Some of the commodity markets have acquired more money flowing in while the US Dollar has come off the June highs of $89.00 to the recent lows of $75.85.  While some traders may be using the US Dollar Index as a benchmark to evaluate the E-Mini S&P 500, Gold, Silver, Copper etc., we may look for a potential trade in the US Dollar as it sets up with our indicators.  We may experience some erratic movements this week and the first part of next week, so we potentially may see a couple of spike downs yet in the US Dollar Index.  Technically and fundamentally, we may be setting up for a buy.

US Dollar Daily Index Chart

US Dollar Daily Index Chart

To view a larger version of this image, click here.

If the Federal Reserve retreats from its previous enthusiastic stimulus, this US Dollar may strengthen.  One may wish to look for a lower entry such as $77.50 to potentially take advantage of a long-term US Dollar move.  It is vital to evaluate your risk with a worst case scenario and place a stop loss in accordance with your risk parameters.  Please discuss the risk/loss with your broker to determine if a trade of this nature may be within your personal risk parameters.

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The Psychology of Futures Trading: 3 Things You Need To Know

This article originally appeared in FutureSource’s Fast Break Newsletter, where Craig Turner is a regular contributor on various futures trading topics.

For many traders, the Psychology of Trading can be the greatest hurdle they need to overcome in order to be successful.  At Daniels Trading, one of our primary goals is to help self-directed online and broker assisted traders overcome this common issue, and get them on their way to achieving the results they are looking for.  While there are many factors that go into the Psychology of Trading, we feel these three are the most common and important to trading success.

1. Losing open positions are losing real money.

Some traders convince themselves their position is not a loss until they liquidate.  Unfortunately, in a mark to market world, a losing position needs to be treated as a loss in the traders mind.  Traders often hold onto a position far longer than they should because they think the market will come back.  They think they are not actually losing money until they get out.  However, the market does not have to come back to the original price.

Another common event is the market goes against traders to the degree that they get out of their trades because they have reached their threshold of market pain, before the market does come back to their entry.  Does that mean you have to get out of a position because it is going against you? No, but you need to confront that fact that the market has not gone in your direction.

How can traders avoid this problem?

All traders should evaluate all of their positions at the end of the day or first thing in the morning.  We look at all of our losing positions and we pretend we are flat.  We then ask ourselves, if we were not in this position, would we get in now at this price based on what the market is telling us.  We will evaluate the market from Technical and Fundamental aspects, and we will even play “Devil’s Advocate” on why not to get in.  If the final answer is “no”, we exit our losing position.  If the final answer is “yes”, we stick with the position and review it again in 24 hours.

Why does this work?

This process works because it helps traders to emotionally detach from their open positions.  Traders stay in positions too long because they are too emotionally invested in the trades.  Any trader who is too emotionally invested will not be able to evaluate the markets and his account properly.  In order to emotionally detach, you have to look at the market as if you are not in the position at all.  Once you clear your head and look at the market as you don’t have a position, you will be able to evaluate it honestly and effectively.

This process also works because the trader is checking the status of the trade at least once a day.  This makes sure the trade does not get away from the trader.  You can’t just stick your head in the sand and hope the position comes back.  Hope is not part of the equation.  This process forces the trader to confront the current market conditions.

2. Open, positive trades are not profitable until the trade is closed.

Some might say this is contradictory to the first rule.  It is and it needs to be.  Too many traders think that losses don’t count until they liquidate, and they count “their winnings” before they exit a trade.  I’ve talked to traders that said they “gave back profits” because they did not get out in time.  The fact is, they did not “give back” anything.  There are no profits until you exit.

Why the difference in thinking and attitude towards winners and losers?

If traders can accept that winners are not profits until they liquidate, they are more likely to take profits and not let the position turn against them.  If traders can accept that a losing trade is losing real money now, they are more likely to get out of a bad trade and preserve trading capital.  There are two sayings in trading that relate to this.  The first is “your first loss is your best loss”.  The second is “no one ever went broke taking a profit”.  Those two sayings relate directly to the Psychology of Trading.

How should traders get in the habit of taking profits?

Traders need to have a stop in place and trail it manually from day to day at the very least.  Some will also use a limit order for a profit target.  I prefer moving the stop each day to lock in profits on a profitable trade.  If you are up 30 cents on corn, and you put your stop 10 cents below the last trade, you know you are locking in 20 cents or $1000.  The most important thing is not exactly how you manage your profit targets, but that you actually have a plan in place with orders in the market.

We also evaluate winning positions every day, just like we do with losing positions.  We ask ourselves two things.  The first is, if this trade went against us starting tomorrow, how much would we want to profit and still feel good about the trade.  That price becomes our stop loss.  The second thing we do is say, “if we were not in this market now, would we get in at this level?” If the answer is “yes”, we might think about adding on a position.  If the answer is “no” we make sure we have that stop in place to take profits in case the market turns against us.

3. Understanding Leverage is Key to Trading Success.

Leverage can change how traders normally approach the markets.  They see the leverage and how much it can work for them positively but never fully explore the downside.  Using leverage properly can turn good trades into great trades, but trading with leverage makes risk management even more important.  Leverage plays a direct role in Greed and Fear, which are two of the strongest elements in the Psychology of Trading.  Using leverage appropriately will reduce the roll Greed and Fear play in your trading.  Here are two rules to live by concerning Leverage:

Margin is not a Guideline for Leverage

Actually, margin is the level that tells traders they are overleveraged and in risk of blowing out their accounts.  If you constantly find yourself on Margin Call or trading right at the margin levels, the powers of Greed and Fear will eventually overtake your trading.  Constantly living on the edge takes it toll, as any trader who has been overleveraged for an extended period of time will tell you.

Know your Account Leverage Ratio

Account Leverage Ratio is the Total Contract Values divided by the Net Liquidity in your account.  Let’s say you have a $10,000 account and long Gold from $1300/oz.  Gold is a 100oz contact, so the total contract value is 100oz X $1300/oz = $130,000.  Take the total contract value ($130,000) and divide it by your net liquidity ($10,000).  $130,000/$10,000 is 13:1.

Your $10K acct long 1 contract of gold is leveraged 13:1.  Even more importantly, if Gold declines by $50 to $1250, that is a $5000 move.  Your account is now at $5000 ($10,000 – $5000) and the total contract value is $125,000.  Your account leverage ratio is now $125,000 / $5000 = 25:1.  A less than 5% move in gold has resulted in a doubling your account leverage.  Traders need to know how much a market can reasonably move against them or in their favor, and how that changes the leverage they are using.

If gold trades trade up $50 from $1300 to $1350, the trader will have $15,000 in their account for a $135,000 contract.  The account is now only leveraged 9:1.  A less than 5% move in Gold has reduced the leverage ratio significantly.

While there is no magic number for how leveraged your account is, you should always be aware of the leverage you are using.  Conservative traders should try to keep the leverage between 5:1 to 10:1.  Aggressive traders should try not to get beyond 20:1 as a general rule.  Once you get to 25:1 or greater, the account will be heavily leveraged and at serious risk of blowing out on any significant market move.  Understanding the leverage will help traders make better decisions when entering and exiting trades.

Putting It all together

Traders who can limit losses, take profits and understand leverage, greatly improve their chances of success.  These aspects of trading are more mental than people realize.  If you can attack these common issues with the understanding they are rooted in the Psychology of Trading, you will be better armed to trade the markets more effectively and with better control of the leverage you are using.

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