Queria compartir esto con ustedes. Tenemos el 10 year cash aun en un rango con pisos en el 3.62 y techo en 3.765
El mercado aun se ve enrangado con el futuro buscando el high previo en precio hacia el 117-22 actualmente a 117-10
Esto llevaria a un test del piso en 3.62% en el cash.
Igual envio la grafica con el big picture que saliendo de este rango pone al mercado con extensiones al 3.555 y penetrando estos niveles hacia el 3.50.
En el big picture que puede ser mas probable un rompimiento del 3.765 nos pone de nuevo con perspectivas hacia el 3.825 y extensiones hacia el 4% y 4.30%.
En el spread 2 vs 10 estamos en un level clave que ya ha indicado un rompimiento hacia abajo con targets en 257-258. Este movimiento se confirmaria con un cierre debajo de 270.
En el caso del mercado europeo, el Bund ha dado una senal de fortaleza patron alcista combinado con un momentum algo bearish con lo cual seria mejor comprar en retrocesos teniendo en cuenta que este mercado ya ha mostrado un rompimiento y tiene un patron alcista claro, frente a los 10 years que siguen operando en el rango.
En otros mercados, el euro (ultimo grafico abajo), esta completando una formacion de “vacija” que es alcista con un rompimiento del euro arriba en 1.3800 y confirmando en 1.3850 con una extension hacia 1.4220 y 1.4290. Esto seria positivo para commodities, crudo hacia 84 y S&P hacia 1170.00. Esto seria consistente con un Tesoro manteniendose en el rango respetando el 3.62 y volviendo a la parte alta del rango.
Muchos saludos,
Yamile Castaneda
Senior Market Analyst /
Securities & Futures Broker
Mercados Derivados Latino America div
MF Global Inc.
440 South Lasalle Street
20th Floor
Chicago, Illinois 60605
Direct: 312-261-7385
Trading Desk: 312-663-7993
Fax: 312-902-6720
ycastaneda@mfglobal.com
www.mfglobal.com
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